Severe Weather 2023

[KevinH]

12Z Euro hasn't come in yet. Not much else I really pay attention to at this range.

Oh

 

[JPWX]

Meanwhile CFSv2 week 1 SCP and 00z Euro Dewpoints for Friday.

 

[KevinH]

Meanwhile CFSv2 week 1 SCP and 00z Euro Dewpoints for Friday.

Juicy air across LA, MS, and AL there.

VERY curious to see what these look like after 18z (2pm ET) on FRIDAY THE 13TH.

 

[JPWX]

Snippet from NWS Jackson Afternoon Discussion:
"Wednesday night through Thursday, there is a chance for an
additional shot at rain as remnant energy from Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm (soon-to-be Hurricane) Lidia will be dissipating over
northern Mexico and becoming absorbed in the Westerlies. Warm, humid
air expanding farther north from the Gulf Coast will support at
least a slight chance for some thunderstorms during this time.
Finally, a low pressure system moving east across the U.S. will
usher a cold front through our forecast area Friday into Friday
night. Modest deep-layer wind shear and weak instability are
currently expected, but a little more warming or moistening of the
atmosphere could support a slight chance for severe storms with that
front. There`s been too much variability in the guidance at this
point to advertise any severe threat, but it`s worth watching as we
make the transition into the cool season."

 

[Clancy]

Meanwhile CFSv2 week 1 SCP and 00z Euro Dewpoints for Friday.

That is moist.

 

[KevinH]

Snippet from NWS Jackson Afternoon Discussion:
"Wednesday night through Thursday, there is a chance for an
additional shot at rain as remnant energy from Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm (soon-to-be Hurricane) Lidia will be dissipating over
northern Mexico and becoming absorbed in the Westerlies. Warm, humid
air expanding farther north from the Gulf Coast will support at
least a slight chance for some thunderstorms during this time.
Finally, a low pressure system moving east across the U.S. will
usher a cold front through our forecast area Friday into Friday
night. Modest deep-layer wind shear and weak instability are
currently expected, but a little more warming or moistening of the
atmosphere could support a slight chance for severe storms with that
front. There`s been too much variability in the guidance at this
point to advertise any severe threat, but it`s worth watching as we
make the transition into the cool season."

Kind of on par with what the SPC said

 

[KevinH]

A thread for a thread

 

[JBishopwx]

CIPS Thursday and Friday :

 

[JPWX]

Might also have to watch the end of the month as well for additional severe weather

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Surprised nobody mentioned the day 4 outlook lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Introducing quite possibly the smallest day 4 outlook ever... ta da

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Also the NAM is predicting a robust gulf threat. A thread is warranted. Booting up a thread

 

[KevinH]

Introducing quite possibly the smallest day 4 outlook ever... ta da View attachment 21792

You can’t see why no one mentioned this? lol

 

[KevinH]

Also the NAM is predicting a robust gulf threat. A thread is warranted. Booting up a thread

Already?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Already?

From landfall of tropical low. I'll incorporate the inland severe threat into the day 4 threat as well.

Thread 'Severe threat 10/11 - 10/14' https://talkweather.com/threads/severe-threat-10-11-10-14.2196/

 

[KevinH]

From landfall of tropical low. I'll incorporate the inland severe threat into the day 4 threat as well.

Thread 'Severe threat 10/11 - 10/14' https://talkweather.com/threads/severe-threat-10-11-10-14.2196/

Bruh, too soon lol

The SPC barely has any slight risks highlighted over the next three days and they aren’t too confident about D4-8 either due to lack of instability

 

[KevinH]

CIPS Thursday and Friday :
View attachment 21770

View attachment 21771

@JPWX have these changed at all for this time period?

 

[JPWX]

@JPWX have these changed at all for this time period?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Bruh, too soon lol

The SPC barely has any slight risks highlighted over the next three days and they aren’t too confident about D4-8 either due to lack of instability

Lol I thought it was good timing, usually whenever a threat is In the day 4-8 range by spc a thread gets made lol

 

[Clancy]

Supercell army off the western coast of FL tonight.