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Severe threat 10/11 - 10/14

UncleJuJu98

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Gulf coast states will likely see a robust severe threat from landfall of a tropical low and the Midwest will see some triple point action from a deep 500mb low.
 

KevinH

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Gulf coast states will likely see a robust severe threat from landfall of a tropical low and the Midwest will see some triple point action from a deep 500mb low.
A bit too soon for a D3 thread. Even the SPC says the model guidance has “substantial differences” for this time period lol

will be interesting to see what happens with the Marginal risks they have outlined
1696898737964.png
 

Taylor Campbell

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I would have issued a tornado watch for parts of Florida already considering the storm behavior that’s onshore now, but also to account for the risk with the offshore likely tornadic supercells. The public should have been notified properly before bed. Hopefully, there isn’t a deadly tornado overnight in Florida.
 
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OHWX97

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That cell ~20 miles west of Pine Island, FL is likely producing an intense waterspout. The two southern most cells are clearly cycling up as well. With a volatile environment in place ahead of these cells, a dangerous situation appears to be unfolding along the central west coast of Florida.
Screenshot 2023-10-12 at 1.12.29 AM.png
 

OHWX97

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TTPA has an excellent view of the two southern cells. The city of Clearwater unfortunately appears to be in the crosshair of the southern most cell.
TTPA 2.png
 

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For Crystal River, sounds like there was some damage with a clubhouse being "destroyed," but no major injuries or any fatalities, thank goodness.

 
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