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Severe Weather 2023

KevinH said:
Oh look at that.. MS/AL..

SHOCKER! lol

Also: :oops:
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shocked no way GIF
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Legit considering starting the thread just based off the 12z euro look hahahah.

Still not super impressed but the euro is peaking my interest more
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Alright… personally, I would wait another day to see what the models do and SPC says tomorrow. The SPC isn’t sure themselves…. YET.

I say if models continue to come into better agreement, the event is expected to be within a week, and starting the thread would align with the official posting policy, then start it. I don’t know if the policy has changed since @WesL posted it back in February though lol
 
I'm going to hold off and give it a few more runs and see if there's more consistency with the ensembles. Here's some maps though @KevinH. 992 mb low in Missouri. Looked up some Sbcape maps and it seems a general level of instability around the Mississippi area and surrounding is showing 500j. This is definitely not a high cape event. If anything we are dealing with low topped supercells that typically coincide our winter events. My hunch is that you'll probably be reaching near 1000j in some areas just a rule of thumb globals tend to underestimate. The low pressure is almost too far northwest to give any good shear for the areas closest to the gulf. May end up with two general areas of higher severe threats. (Immediate vicinity and closer to the gulf.)

Still lots of time and changes. I'm pretty darn intrigued though, feels like it's been a while lol. ECMWFUS_500_spd_162.pngECMWFUS_sfc_temp_162.pngECMWFUS_prec_prec_162.png
 
KevinH said:
Alright… personally, I would wait another day to see what the models do and SPC says tomorrow. The SPC isn’t sure themselves…. YET.

I say if models continue to come into better agreement, the event is expected to be within a week, and starting the thread would align with the official posting policy, then start it. I don’t know if the policy has changed since @WesL posted it back in February though lol
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Lol no worries I'm going to wait, lol. Better for another days worth of data then prematurely start a thread. Although...... Trey has something to say lol. https://x.com/ConvChronicles/status/1710285206781927534?s=20
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I'm going to hold off and give it a few more runs and see if there's more consistency with the ensembles. Here's some maps though @KevinH. 992 mb low in Missouri. Looked up some Sbcape maps and it seems a general level of instability around the Mississippi area and surrounding is showing 500j. This is definitely not a high cape event. If anything we are dealing with low topped supercells that typically coincide our winter events. My hunch is that you'll probably be reaching near 1000j in some areas just a rule of thumb globals tend to underestimate. The low pressure is almost too far northwest to give any good shear for the areas closest to the gulf. May end up with two general areas of higher severe threats. (Immediate vicinity and closer to the gulf.)

Still lots of time and changes. I'm pretty darn intrigued though, feels like it's been a while lol. View attachment 21760View attachment 21761View attachment 21762
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Keep posting these maps please lol

And yes it does feel like a while.

If I am looking at the first map (which I don’t know how to read) correctly, areas South and east of the “red” and “yellow” areas (TX, LA, MS, AR) could be under a threat at this specific time frame… I think?

I always look at events that are expected to take place close to the Gulf, south/central AL/MS.

Welp, I guess I’ll turn on more notifications for this thread….. and on Twitter lol
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
Lol no worries I'm going to wait, lol. Better for another days worth of data then prematurely start a thread. Although...... Trey has something to say lol. https://x.com/ConvChronicles/status/1710285206781927534?s=20
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Something I learned recently…

Troughs that take up the entire space of the US (I forgot what it’s called) like the one Trey showed in this tweet can be a bad sign. Too early to tell, but again, we will just have to watch and see
 
KevinH said:
Something I learned recently…

Troughs that take up the entire space of the US (I forgot what it’s called) like the one Trey showed in this tweet can be a bad sign. Too early to tell, but again, we will just have to watch and see
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Longwave trough? Yeah you can have some nasty weather off those.

Currently the 12z euro and the 18z GFS differ pretty greatly on wether a shortwave will be imbedded in it, if the euro and it's stout shortwave come true than there will likely be a better chance for severe weather.
 
All the global model output has substantial DP in the 60s to 70s around the 13th over a very large area.
 

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