Severe Weather 2022

[CheeselandSkies]

SPC non-committal at this time due to expected limited moisture/buoyancy. They also backed off their Day 4 15% for Sunday, to a Marginal (5%) on this morning's Day 3.

 

[MichelleH]

Forgive me, I haven't had enough coffee yet and my allergies are killing me. When would this be affecting North Alabama? Thanks!

 

[KevinH]

Forgive me, I haven't had enough coffee yet and my allergies are killing me. When would this be affecting North Alabama? Thanks!

Too early to tell if Alabama will even be affected. We just have to wait and read the future outlooks :/

 

[Taylor Campbell]

A lot of the CIPS analog matches were productive tornado days. The wind profiles with this system on Tuesday look less messy and have higher critical angles than most other severe weather days we have to look at and instability seems to be creeping up. MS looks to be the hot spot.

 

[MichelleH]

Oh not Tuesday!! I actually get to go somewhere special! No, shoo, go away! You storms know the rules! No tornadoes in Alabama until Wednesday!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The 00z GFS run came in with better lapse rates/CAPE and did not compromise the wind field.

 

[JBishopwx]

Tuesday :

 

[Jacob]

Not necessarily severe weather related, but on the other side of this system it's been quite windy. We had gusts to 45MPH this morning as the front is approaching.

 

[Timhsv]

 

[KevinH]

View attachment 15273

It’s almost always Mississippi it seems SMH

 

[Sawmaster]

It’s almost always Mississippi it seems SMH

I like how James Spann explains it for AL- it's exactly those weather patterns which make possible the abundance of nature there, and you can't have one without the other.

Phil

 

[KevinH]

I like how James Spann explains it for AL- it's exactly those weather patterns which make possible the abundance of nature there, and you can't have one without the other.

Phil

Nature = moisture lol

Thank you Gulf of Mexico‍

 

[Jetstream]

current day 2

 

[MichelleH]

Severe Weather Threat - October 23rd-25th, 2022

A thread for discussion on the severe weather threat October 23rd-25th. The SPC has issued a Day 4 15% for a large portion of Mississippi.

talkweather.com

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Meanwhile...

 

[Austin Dawg]

Once again I'm watching the radar and say that looks like a tornado right there. 2 minutes later...

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Jarrell again? What's next, a 1997 repeat?

 

[Austin Dawg]

Jarrell again? What's next, a 1997 repeat?

They seem to like that path is not the first time I've seen this happen moved here in 2007

 

[Austin Dawg]

I hate to double post but I felt like you might want to see this.

Jarrell tornado

Tornado Jarrell confirmed

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The models have been showing potential for a higher ceiling severe event November 4th-6th.