Severe Weather 2022

[warneagle]

But wait, there's more

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

I know that peninsular Florida does get the occasional strong tornado, but it seems like they most often occur at night. Rare to see a damaging tornado here so clearly during the day - there was one that went through Miami (1997??) during the day that was widely filmed.

Also, I should clarify, based on the fact this hit a trailer park, I’m don’t mean to imply it’s definitely a strong tornado, could easily be an EF-1 based on some of the initial damage photos I’ve seen.


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[akt1985]

The Buccaneers/Eagles NFL playoff game starts in a couple of hours. Hopefully there are no more thunderstorms over the east-central Gulf as lightning delays could come into play if there are.

 

[warneagle]

Fort Myers tornado rated low-end EF2

 

[gregassagraf]

As humidity start to enter Argentina, Uruguay and south Brazil, severe thunderstorms started to develop in the region. With so much heat trapped at surface level, some regions experienced 10ºC drop in less than 10 minutes.
Yesterday (01/17/2022), in Guaíba, a city in the metro area of Rio Grande do Sul capital (Porto Alegre, Brazil), a severe thunderstorm with possible tornado caused havoc throughout the city, turning trucks on its side, major damage to property and snapping eucalyptus trees (probable tornadic damage.)

 

[CheeselandSkies]

A small 5% tornado has been added to today's outlook over portions of southeast Texas/western Louisiana.

 

[JPWX]

Anyone see a severe weather risk late month/early February? I'll be honest. Haven't looked at the 500mb level pattern on the models but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. I know there's been talk of a flip in the pattern going into next month with more trough in the West.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Anyone see a severe weather risk late month/early February? I'll be honest. Haven't looked at the 500mb level pattern on the models but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. I know there's been talk of a flip in the pattern going into next month with more trough in the West.

Great question, long range seasonal models suggest a big pattern change two weeks . Still La Niña enso, wouldn’t suprise me least bit see a large scale outbreak sometimes later February…

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Anyone see a severe weather risk late month/early February? I'll be honest. Haven't looked at the 500mb level pattern on the models but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. I know there's been talk of a flip in the pattern going into next month with more trough in the West.

The green circle area u have shown on your graph , that’s going be big focus area pretty much this late winter into spring for severe weather I think . Central part country going have a mild quieter than usual severe season due to the ridge that takes shape over that part country .

 

[Fred Gossage]

Anyone see a severe weather risk late month/early February? I'll be honest. Haven't looked at the 500mb level pattern on the models but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. I know there's been talk of a flip in the pattern going into next month with more trough in the West.

Pattern change will likely be more gradual and probably a little delayed... closer to mid February and beyond. I don't think it will be as abrupt as the pattern change between November and December, but I could be wrong and it certainly wouldn't be the first time. One of the problems with that is that it may be keying us up for March and April though. Getting increasing signals that the door may stay open for Dixie in April this spring. But I think we have a little ways to go before we jump back into a full-on severe weather pattern, and even then, it may be a gradual roll into it.

 

[JPWX]

Pattern change will likely be more gradual and probably a little delayed... closer to mid February and beyond. I don't think it will be as abrupt as the pattern change between November and December, but I could be wrong and it certainly wouldn't be the first time. One of the problems with that is that it may be keying us up for March and April though. Getting increasing signals that the door may stay open for Dixie in April this spring. But I think we have a little ways to go before we jump back into a full-on severe weather pattern, and even then, it may be a gradual roll into it.

I agree. Plus I don't believe we're quite done with winter weather issues either. I would be concerned about another significant snow/ice event next month.

 

[Fred Gossage]

I agree. Plus I don't believe we're quite done with winter weather issues either. I would be concerned about another significant snow/ice event next month.

Yeah, I think stepping out of winter weather is going to be as gradual as it will be to step into severe weather.

 

[Weatherphreak]

GFS hinting the storm around February 4-5th needs to be watched. Good low placement, 60 dewpoints up to lower Tennessee. I can't speak on winds or anything like that but something to watch a little over a week out. Its getting about that time for things to get a little spicier. I'm personally happy to get a reprieve from the cold weather that it looks like North Alabama will experience until this time period.

 

[JPWX]

Snippet from SPC Day 4-8 Outlook this morning.

 

[Richardjacks]

Yeah, I think stepping out of winter weather is going to be as gradual as it will be to step into severe weather.

This step may be timed well with the climo peak of severe weather in the south, along with an active southern stream.... will be interesting to watch

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Severe weather chances are increasing in tandem with a significant global pattern change to start February.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Severe weather chances are increasing in tandem with a significant global pattern change to start February.

Yeah you can easily see this taking place on long range sesonal models and now globes are picking it up now

 

[JPWX]

Latest snippet from SPC Day 4-8 Outlook this morning.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Still keeping an eye out for a severe weather threat this upcoming Thursday.

 

[Tennie]

Here's one seasonal tornado forecast for this year that I found recently:



Essentially, based on current conditions and analogs, there's a possibility that this could be an overall slow year for tornadoes (particularly on the Great Plains), though there's always the possibility that things could change later on (so I would personally still recommend always keeping an eye on the weather regardless).