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Severe Weather 2022

The severe weather season for year 2022 will be?

  • Above Average

    Votes: 15 68.2%
  • Average

    Votes: 7 31.8%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
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I don't know if I've ever seen a season with capping issues so ubiquitous across the board, even near/east of the Mississippi River...looking at the EHI maps on both NAM and GFS, Sunday should be an extremely dangerous outbreak (not to mention a potentially epic chase day) from Kansas to Wisconsin, except nearly all the forecast soundings have an ironclad cap at 00Z Monday.
 
I don't know if I've ever seen a season with capping issues so ubiquitous across the board, even near/east of the Mississippi River...looking at the EHI maps on both NAM and GFS, Sunday should be an extremely dangerous outbreak (not to mention a potentially epic chase day) from Kansas to Wisconsin, except nearly all the forecast soundings have an ironclad cap at 00Z Monday.
Loaded Gun sounding type of thing?
 
Loaded Gun sounding type of thing?

Of a sort, although the proverbial gun is never gonna "fire" with the 850-700mb temps depicted on those soundings.

Edit: On second look, today's 12Z NAM is showing a few areas where the cap may potentially break Sunday evening. Wanted to post a sounding from Pivotal but it's not attaching. Sometimes this randomly happens.
 
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damage from yesterday's tornado in VA
unknown-705.png
Is that a slab?
 
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I was thinking low-end EF3.
We could both be wrong. Just saw a short vid on the Live Storms Media YT channel which shows what looks like the top pic @pohnpei posted in #448, and from that I think it was a trailer. The stacked blocks where the frame rails would have been is clear in the video, although they're indistinct in the pic here. All the details match between these two.

The pic below seems to be a different homesite or maybe a storage building etc built of brick. Not enough details to rate.

Phil
 
Last weekend's derecho knocked out power to my neighbourhood for 60 hours. We were some of the last in town to get power back and apparently there are people in the Ottawa region who still don't have power. There was a good 20 feet of fence down which my dad and I had to rip out. We're still waiting on the replacement fencing we ordered to get here, although my dog loves the freedom to run around. Also, half the back yard flooded since it backs onto a creek. Last Sunday morning we literally woke up to find some frogs had laid eggs in our yard.

Apparently some wind engineers estimated peak gusts of 220 kph (136 mph) in the Ottawa area, which I believe would make this one of the strongest derechos ever recorded if confirmed.
 
Not sure where else to post this, but I just returned from my first chasecation. Even though I was out there for a fairly inactive period, I still had a great time. I saw the morton wedge from an angle very few others saw it from, as we were on a gravel road due south of the tornado while most others were on the paved roads to the East. Also got to see the milky way for the first time and started learning about lightning photography, and managed to get a decent shot with only my cell phone.

tor 1.jpgtor 2.jpgtor 3.jpgCapture.PNG20220519_031108.jpg

Was an unforgettable trip. I will be back!
 

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SPC D4 for possible MCS across parts of the SE on Friday.
1654617841761.png
 
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