JPWX
Member
The CIPS at Day 8 is already picking up on it too.The 12z euro today long range starting pick up a severe wx threat around Xmas or just after … parts Dixie Tennessee valley
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The CIPS at Day 8 is already picking up on it too.The 12z euro today long range starting pick up a severe wx threat around Xmas or just after … parts Dixie Tennessee valley
They may use other tools besides radar when deciding to issue warnings. Let them do the job you don’tNot sure why. Storm has 28 mph max shear. Just Bc it has a hook doesn’t mean it should be warned. They issue for anything down south
I almost messaged you on Twitter about this comment not realizing who you were12z Euro valid around the 28th. Whenever you have temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s/70s to near 80 during the winter months, you'll have trouble.
Yep. I'm that guy that is always talking about or bringing up long range threats. LOL!I almost messaged you on Twitter about this comment not realizing who you were
Yep. I'm that guy that is always talking about or bringing up long range threats. LOL!
LA, MS, TN right?That guy who was doing it oh...about 10 years and 8 months ago? That kid they wrote about in "What Stands in a Storm?" Great to know you are still pursuing your passion. Although I'm sure that day was incredibly traumatic, you went above and beyond to help warn your town.
As for those Euro maps...just the surface low placement and surface thermos is a big yikes for parts of the South if that verifies.
LA, MS, TN right?
Right… SMHPossibly parts of Alabama and Arkansas too...it's hard to glean the particulars from just surface maps but generally speaking that is a potentially dangerous look.
Yes the same one. Finished my degree in Geoscience in August 2016 from Mississippi State. I do more in the private sector.That guy who was doing it oh...about 10 years and 8 months ago? That kid they wrote about in "What Stands in a Storm?" Great to know you are still pursuing your passion. Although I'm sure that day was incredibly traumatic, you went above and beyond to help warn your town.
As for those Euro maps...just the surface low placement and surface thermos is a big yikes for parts of the South if that verifies.
I've read that book and did not realize who you were. I am sending you a huge virtual hug! (And now I need to go read the book again.)Yes the same one. Finished my degree in Geoscience in August 2016 from Mississippi State. I do more in the private sector.
It's almost worth another thread to talk about this guy and what JPWX has experienced and done. I haven't met him but heard great stuff.That guy who was doing it oh...about 10 years and 8 months ago? That kid they wrote about in "What Stands in a Storm?" Great to know you are still pursuing your passion. Although I'm sure that day was incredibly traumatic, you went above and beyond to help warn your town.
As for those Euro maps...just the surface low placement and surfce thermos is a big yikes for parts of the South if that verifies.
...DISCUSSION...
Above-average agreement persists with a shortwave trough near the
Pacific Northwest coast at 12Z Thu progressing east across the
northern states through D5/Fri. Cyclogenesis is expected over the
north-central states with poleward advection of modified moisture
from the western Gulf towards the OH Valley/Midwest in an air mass
characterized by well above-normal to potentially record warmth.
This might yield some severe potential on D5/Fri. However, with
further reinforcement of a continental polar air mass over the Gulf
through D2, the degree of moisture return in D4-5 may remain
insufficient to warrant a greater severe threat. It will prime the
moist sector for the next upstream trough, with some indications
that one at a lower latitude may evolve in the D8/Mon-D9/Tue time
frame. Spread in this scenario remains much too large to warrant
consideration of a severe weather area, but an above-average
warm/moist sector in terms of quality and spatial extent for late
December bears watching early next week.
Already talking deep moisture return not problem …SPC's 4-8 is about as ominous as it can be without actually delineating an area.
I guess we can consider ourselves lucky that this pattern is occurring now rather than in April/May. What would 12/10-11 and 12/15 have been like with the sun angles and moisture depth of those months, all else being equal?
Well, 10–11 December was very close to some major springtime events in terms of intensity, as were 19–20 February ’84 (Enigma) and 5–6 February ’08 (Super Tuesday).SPC's 4-8 is about as ominous as it can be without actually delineating an area.
I guess we can consider ourselves lucky that this pattern is occurring now rather than in April/May. What would 12/10-11 and 12/15 have been like with the sun angles and moisture depth of those months, all else being equal?
An early morning tornado injured one in south Fort Myers, FL and a wind driven coconut damaged a car in Miami.