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Severe Weather 2021

TH2002

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We've got a pretty significant, slow-moving winter storm heading for SoCal right now. Could get several inches of rain (possibly up to 4-7''!!) and perhaps even some snow where I live. What I'm not looking forward to is the likely shutdown of the Cajon Pass due to weather related accidents which ALWAYS results in our community becoming a gridlock of traffic.
 

gregassagraf

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90E5F973-2561-4C7E-B21D-704D52CD08B3.jpeg1DEE102A-87A6-4071-97C7-BA64D0EFCE66.jpeg
Could someone help me identify what this is? I took this photo from my window and at this distance the movement of the clouds was crazy. Some people I showed the photo said it was prova a shelf cloud during its formation while others said it was wall cloud. This is looking towards south-south-west, and in the Southern Hemisphere (Southern Brazil.)

I’m having a hard time formatting this message from my smartphone, but the first photo was taken later when it had approached me and the movement was way less intense as when it was far away!
Photos taken late October 2021.
 

Fred Gossage

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Are SSTs in the gulf expected to stay above normal through the rest of the month?
Most likely so, with very few if any frontal intrusions. However, while that helps, that's not as much of a hindering factor as people think when it's not above average. Until we get into May and the summer months, most of our boundary layer moisture during severe weather events can be traced back to the Caribbean. In the months leading up to the 2011 severe weather season, Gulf SSTs ran below average for quite a bit of the time.
 

Taylor Campbell

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Tomorrow's best parameter set to the north continues to look better than a slight. Expectations should be enhanced with the possibility to overachieve locally.
 
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Taylor Campbell

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Tomorrow's best parameter set to the north continues to look better than a slight. Expectations should be enhanced with the possibility to overachieve locally.

Also see focus on the models for a better than marginal risk across the southern end.
 

bjdeming

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View attachment 11026View attachment 11024
Could someone help me identify what this is? I took this photo from my window and at this distance the movement of the clouds was crazy. Some people I showed the photo said it was prova a shelf cloud during its formation while others said it was wall cloud. This is looking towards south-south-west, and in the Southern Hemisphere (Southern Brazil.)

I’m having a hard time formatting this message from my smartphone, but the first photo was taken later when it had approached me and the movement was way less intense as when it was far away!
Photos taken late October 2021.
I come here to learn about weather, so my knowledge is limited. That said, I think the top picture is the early stage of a mesocyclone trying to spin up and the bottom picture is a wall cloud. Someone knowledgeable please correct me if I'm wrong about these scary-looking clouds.

Good thing for the populated area below that it didn't get going. How intense is the spring severe season in your part of Brazil ?
 

bjdeming

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Moderate now. Per the current discussion,

These significant severe wind gusts represent the primary hazard, but enough curvature exist within the low-level wind profile for embedded QLCS tornadoes. Any tornadic circulation would likely be transient, given the strongly forced, linear character of the storm mode.

Derecho, perhaps?
 

gregassagraf

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I come here to learn about weather, so my knowledge is limited. That said, I think the top picture is the early stage of a mesocyclone trying to spin up and the bottom picture is a wall cloud. Someone knowledgeable please correct me if I'm wrong about these scary-looking clouds.

Good thing for the populated area below that it didn't get going. How intense is the spring severe season in your part of Brazil ?
well... where I live we get some thunderstorms. Occasionally we get some supper-cells which produce a lot o hail, but never I've heard of a large tornado in my region, although 115 miles south-west of me is one of the most active regions in the country. Numerous tornadoes have been reported, and filmed there. (Like the Indaiatuba wedge from 2005.) It's sadly one of the most populated regions in South America! Thankfully never has a storm had the necessary ingredients to produce a long track tornado in that area! (those usually are more common near the Paraná River.)
But yeah: here where I live this time of year we get a lot of influence from the Amazon Rain Forest (even though it is thousands of miles away.): for example, this night and the night before, I could not sleep because how humid it is. We had temperatures at around 71ªF while the dew point was at 70ªF. I feel like I'm in a sauna. I just hope the sun doesn't go out to heat this atmosphere, because if that happens, this afternoon will probably have some big thunderstorms.
 

Taylor Campbell

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Is there still a legitimate severe threat around Christmas? I noticed highs will only be in the 50s most of next week in north Alabama?

Not for you in Madison, Alabama.
But there's a legitimate threat to watch for Florida Tuesday/Wednesday.
 
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atrainguy

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NWS has a "slight" risk for severe storms in SE Texas along the coast today, along with a 5% chance for tornadoes. I see in the forecast discussion it mentions the possibility of isolated supercells developing ahead of the front.

 
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