Severe Weather 2021

12z Euro has a very large warm sector on Friday with a pretty broad-based (and organized) upper trough, probably would favor a rather widespread severe event in the Mississippi Valley.
 
Yeah, that looks gnarly on the Euro from Arkansas, Louisiana, and southeast/east Missouri... all the way over to Ohio, middle Kentucky, middle Tennessee, north/northwest Alabama, and north/central Mississippi... from the midday/afternoon Friday into the morning hours of Saturday when the cold front is beginning to finally catch up with the low-level jet axis. With height falls out across the low-level jet axis in the open warm sector, and 0-6 km vectors more veered across the warm sector, and how far back that front is for so long... it may be a while before things try to go predominantly linear if that solution is right.

And it should be noted that all the other guidance has and continues to consistently agree on that general idea for Friday/Friday night, even if they are in the camp that also ejects out the main body of the trough in a more favorable way for Saturday. Regardless of that idea, they all agree on a solution similar to the Euro setup for Friday/Friday night. My higher confidence right now is on Friday, and Saturday is a wait and see for me.
 
gangstonc said:
I see it is expected to be warm for another 7 days or so. Are we still in a relatively favorable pattern for storms?
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Nothing immediately stands out in the next 7-10 days as significant trouble, but I'm not sure we get through the month without another significant severe weather event of some type.
 
Some of the offices in my neck of the woods (MKX, DMX) are hinting at the potential for some severe weather up here midweek. Pretty sure that would be unprecedented for this latitude this deep into December (although we have had significant tornado events in early January, such as in 2008). SPC wasn't impressed when they put out their latest 4-8, but we saw how that went for them leading up to the horror show last night. I'll wait a couple more days before getting excited or delving into the models.
 
The 165mph rating house of Defiance tornado. The house seems not anchored but the destruction of concrete basement wall still raise thw eyebrow. I didn't expect this one also being high likely violent level given radar performance. There were like mutiple violent candidates besides the historic quadstate tornado now.
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The swept clean house of bowling green clearly showed bolts, nuts and washers with impressive contextual damage. I am very curious to see how high It will eventually reached in terms of rating.
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pohnpei said:
The 165mph rating house of Defiance tornado. The house seems not anchored but the destruction of concrete basement wall still raise thw eyebrow. I didn't expect this one also being high likely violent level given radar performance. There were like mutiple violent candidates besides the historic quadstate tornado now.
View attachment 10951View attachment 10952
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OF COURSE ST LOUIS IS AN OFFICE THAT LOWBALLS TORNADOES.
 
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