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Severe Weather 2021 (5 Viewers)

Fred Gossage

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12z guidance illustrates what is meant by the idea being fickle. We have trended back toward 60+ dewpoints not coming quite as far northward now, stopping maybe just north of Birmingham at northernmost extent, and mainly staying disjointed from the stronger low-level winds because of that.
 
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The CPC Ocean Briefing PDO values seem to follow the more conservative route similar to Nate Mantua's method, and the new October reading there is -2.45. This is definitely a high-end -PDO regime. Like you said, we've essentially reset the North Pacific to pre-2013 conditions.

We'll see what happens next spring...
 

atrainguy

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Scrolling through Facebook I saw this post. Nothing crazy, but there's a small severe/tornado risk in Washington and Oregon today.

 

Fred Gossage

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We'll see what happens next spring...
If the Euro monthlies are right, unless there is something in March, nothing happens in the Plains next spring... even despite the much more classically favorable NPAC conditions.
Whistle.gif
 

andyhb

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Lovely, more drought to look forward to...
 

atrainguy

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If the Euro monthlies are right, unless there is something in March, nothing happens in the Plains next spring... even despite the much more classically favorable NPAC conditions.
Whistle.gif

I'm not familiar with the models and their reliability, is the Euro good at predicting storms this far out, or is there plenty of room for it to change between now and Spring?
 

Fred Gossage

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I'm not familiar with the models and their reliability, is the Euro good at predicting storms this far out, or is there plenty of room for it to change between now and Spring?
We're not looking for storm systems this far out on there. We are looking at what those ensembles paint as positioning of the troughs and ridges in the pattern, where areas are cooler/warmer than normal, where areas are wetter/drier than normal, etc.
 

Fred Gossage

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Know it’s way early , thinking east of the plains stands better chance of severe wx events In spring 2022?
If the Euro monthies are right and ridging takes over for the Plains by April, then yes, and early even for Dixie. January-February with some potential to linger into March IF the Euro monthlies are correct.
 

Weatherphreak

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If the Euro monthies are right and ridging takes over for the Plains by April, then yes, and early even for Dixie. January-February with some potential to linger into March IF the Euro monthlies are correct.
Dixie isn't a stranger to having outbreaks that time of year. Is this what the NWS uses for their seasonal outlooks for precip, temps etc? Always wondered how they could make those blanket predictions for a season.
 

Fred Gossage

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Dixie isn't a stranger to having outbreaks that time of year. Is this what the NWS uses for their seasonal outlooks for precip, temps etc? Always wondered how they could make those blanket predictions for a season.
That type of seasonal modeling is some of the data used, but the Euro monthlies alone aren't the only ensemble set. Besides the seasonal ensemble data, there is also knowledge of climatology in relation to the various teleconnections at play and other such things.
 

OHWX97

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We might have to add Nantucket to the list of unusual places that have been struck by tornadoes in 2021. Only radar indicated at the moment.
 

OHWX97

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Fortunately, I haven't heard any reports of a tornado or any damage from that storm, however, the tornado warning is certainly noteworthy for being the first for Nantucket in at least three and a half decades.
 
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Chances of seeing this La Niña going strong are increasing as a super kelvin wave fixing break across the pacific. Should significantly cool the waters . Could get interesting late December into early spring severe weather wise across Dixie… especially with a negative pdo to boot also
 

OHWX97

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There's another damaging tornado just west of Providence, RI and possibly another one just to its south.
 
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