If the Euro monthlies are right, unless there is something in March, nothing happens in the Plains next spring... even despite the much more classically favorable NPAC conditions.
If the Euro monthlies are right, unless there is something in March, nothing happens in the Plains next spring... even despite the much more classically favorable NPAC conditions.
Know it’s way early , thinking east of the plains stands better chance of severe wx events In spring 2022?If the Euro monthlies are right, unless there is something in March, nothing happens in the Plains next spring... even despite the much more classically favorable NPAC conditions.
We're not looking for storm systems this far out on there. We are looking at what those ensembles paint as positioning of the troughs and ridges in the pattern, where areas are cooler/warmer than normal, where areas are wetter/drier than normal, etc.
If the Euro monthies are right and ridging takes over for the Plains by April, then yes, and early even for Dixie. January-February with some potential to linger into March IF the Euro monthlies are correct.
Dixie isn't a stranger to having outbreaks that time of year. Is this what the NWS uses for their seasonal outlooks for precip, temps etc? Always wondered how they could make those blanket predictions for a season.
That type of seasonal modeling is some of the data used, but the Euro monthlies alone aren't the only ensemble set. Besides the seasonal ensemble data, there is also knowledge of climatology in relation to the various teleconnections at play and other such things.
