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Severe Weather 2021 (6 Viewers)

bjdeming

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Land links to Vancouver, BC, have been cut by storms; one dead reported thus far.


(Sorry about the blend of propaganda and news; it's difficult to find news reports that can focus on one topic without imposing such things on everyone. Anyway, I hadn't realized how bad they got hit. We had heavy rain for a day here in west central Oregon, but nothing like that!)
 
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TH2002

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Windy showing a pretty potent line of storms evolving across the Southern Plains into Missouri and Arkansas before evolving into a QLCS over eastern TX during the D8 period. SPC currently has a "PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW" tag for D8 and as such, take this with a grain of salt, but it is something to keep in mind.
windyd8.JPG
 

Austin Dawg

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Land links to Vancouver, BC, have been cut by storms; one dead reported thus far.


(Sorry about the blend of propaganda and news; it's difficult to find news reports that can focus on one topic without imposing such things on everyone. Anyway, I hadn't realized how bad they got hit. We had heavy rain for a day here in west central Oregon, but nothing like that!)

Does anybody remember what we blamed bad weather on before climate change showed up? I do agree we have a climate change but can we actually blame every bad weather event on climate change?
 

TH2002

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Does anybody remember what we blamed bad weather on before climate change showed up? I do agree we have a climate change but can we actually blame every bad weather event on climate change?
Tornado in Dixie Alley? Climate change.
Floods in the Northeast and Canada? Climate change.
Droughts and wildfires in California? Climate change.
Mosquitoes? Climate change.
A butterfly lands on a flower in the rainforest? Climate change.

Yes climate change is real but good grief. Blaming literally everything on climate change has reached a point of hilarity. And if people aren't blaming climate change, they're blaming HAARP.

I sure miss the days when natural disasters were still seen as natural, and when not everything was immediately attributed to climate change.
 

bjdeming

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The flooding news made NASA Observatory's pic of the day (should this get its own thread, mods?):

pnwflooding_%20mrg_2021318_lrg.jpg


Guess it's really bad up there still. :(


I didn't know that area was part of central Tennessee!
 

bjdeming

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Tornado in Dixie Alley? Climate change.
Floods in the Northeast and Canada? Climate change.
Droughts and wildfires in California? Climate change.
Mosquitoes? Climate change.
A butterfly lands on a flower in the rainforest? Climate change.

Yes climate change is real but good grief. Blaming literally everything on climate change has reached a point of hilarity. And if people aren't blaming climate change, they're blaming HAARP.

I sure miss the days when natural disasters were still seen as natural, and when not everything was immediately attributed to climate change.
Ah, the days when they didn't issue tornado warnings so as not to panic people about "Acts of God" -- what can anyone do about those?

Lots, it turned out.

Actually, I agree with Jacob on this and will continue the discussion over there.
 
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TH2002

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Ah, the days when they didn't issue tornado warnings so as not to panic people about "Acts of God" -- what can anyone do about those?

Lots, it turned out.

Actually, I agree with Jacob on this and will continue the discussion over there.
Yes, the same days when they thought tornadoes make houses "expldode" and they had wind speeds of "500 miles per hour".
 

Tennie

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Yes, the same days when they thought tornadoes make houses "expldode" and they had wind speeds of "500 miles per hour".

A good chunk of the relative lack of study of tornadoes throughout the first half of the 20th Century can be attributed to a lack of tornado forecasting. One important reason for studying a given weather phenomenon (e.g. tornadoes) is to improve the ability to forecast said phenomenon; however, when there is no real incentive to forecast the phenomenon (as was the case with the ban on tornado forecasting), the incentive to research the phenomenon is also low in turn.

This can be especially seen in the case of tornado research during the forecasting ban with an incident in the 1930s. Estonian tornado esearcher Johannes Peter Letzmann was looking for tornado data to study, and knew (even at time) that the U.S. saw more tornadoes per year than any other region on Earth. As such, he sent off a letter to the U.S. Weather Bureau (the predecessor to the modern National Weather Service) proposing that a network of tornado and waterspout observers be set up to record said storms and the damages that they cause (this is rather similar to what pioneering tornado researcher John Park Finley did in the 1870s and 1880s before his experiments in tornado forecasting were stymied by the ban, though I have no idea offhand whether Letzmann was ever aware of that). The official response was a rebuff, declaring that not only were tornadoes rare occurrences, but that the horror of actually witnessing one would likely preclude any descriptions more detailed than one of a general nature.

It makes one wonder: What if there had never been a ban on tornado forecasting, and instead tornado forecasting and research were encouraged? How much more might we know about tornadoes (and especially specific tornado events that occurred over the historical "tornado ban" period)?
 

buckeye05

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Major damage from a wedge tornado in Modica, Italy on 11/17/2021. One fatality and multiple injuries reported.

Edit: Initally thought this happened today. Didn't realize it was a few days ago as I am just now hearing about it. Looks like it was part of an outbreak that occurred on November 16-17, as I'm seeing videos of multiple other tornadoes that occurred in Italy that day as well on youtube, including some spectacular twin tornadic waterspouts in the Licata area.

 
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Clancy

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CIPS' extended guidance seems to be picking up on the possibility for some severe weather in the D12-14 range (December 2-5). Still way out there and probably will change, but wanted to mention it for posterity.
1637515147472.png
 

Weatherphreak

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Just took a look at the GFS 12z and December looks quite stormy for at least the 1st half of the month in the SE. 60 dewpoints surging up into the Arklatex with several waves of systems pulling that juice north from the 5th - end of the run. Definitely something to keep an eye on to see if the trend maintains.
 

KevinH

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Just took a look at the GFS 12z and December looks quite stormy for at least the 1st half of the month in the SE. 60 dewpoints surging up into the Arklatex with several waves of systems pulling that juice north from the 5th - end of the run. Definitely something to keep an eye on to see if the trend maintains.
Seems like the GFS is the model to always sound the alarm this far out.

Still, this will warrant more attention IF other models start to agree and are consistent.
 

Fred Gossage

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SPC is not impressed based on their 4-8. Moisture expected to remain insufficient due to frontal intrusions into the Gulf.
That's mostly because most, if not all, of any potential threats ahead are not yet within the Day 4-8 time window. There may be a minor/confined something toward the middle of next week, but the large scale pattern doesn't really get favorable for something beyond that until we get closer to mid month.
 

Fred Gossage

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Starting to get the vibe more and more that there may be a low-end but organized threat with the system next Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Arklatex/Arklamiss up into the MidSouth and possibly as far northeast as the Tennessee Valley looks to be most at play.
 

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