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Severe Weather 2021

Tornado Emergency and Flash Flood Emergency in one day...historical day for New Jersey. I'd better call my friend up there...



And the forward motion on this thing is insane!

 
People are already jumping the gun and assuming that the Mullica Hill tornado was an EF4. I'm seeing tract/cookie cutter homes leveled so far. Seems like a Coal City or Naperville type situation based on the imagery I've analyzed at this point. I'd expect a rating no higher than EF3, but then again, there's ratings like Newnan to make me wonder...
 
buckeye05 said:
People are already jumping the gun and assuming that the Mullica Hill tornado was an EF4. I'm seeing tract/cookie cutter homes leveled so far. Seems like a Coal City or Naperville type situation based on the imagery I've analyzed at this point. I'd expect a rating no higher than EF3, but then again, there's ratings like Newnan to make me wonder...
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I don't think anyone's assuming anything at this point... I myself haven't seen any photos of homes that were reportedly leveled in the worst affected area yet.
 
TH2002 said:
I don't think anyone's assuming anything at this point... I myself haven't seen any photos of homes that were reportedly leveled in the worst affected area yet.
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Oh I wasn’t referring to anyone here on this forum. I’m hearing “EF4” being thrown around quite a bit in discussions elsewhere though.

Here’s some of the worst damage I’ve seen so far:
4E36A98E-DE05-46D0-A5B9-811AFFC26F18.jpeg
 
buckeye05 said:
Oh I wasn’t referring to anyone here on this forum. I’m hearing “EF4” being thrown around quite a bit in discussions elsewhere though.
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Mostly people on sites like YouTube and Twitter I assume?

I suppose it could have been a violent tornado from some of the damage descriptions I've been hearing, but unless there's something I haven't seen yet I'm doubtful over an EF4 rating.
 
TH2002 said:
Mostly people on sites like YouTube and Twitter I assume?

I suppose it could have been a violent tornado from some of the damage descriptions I've been hearing, but unless there's something I haven't seen yet I'm doubtful over an EF4 rating.
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Yup.

To be fair, it’s technically not entirely out of the question, but there’s not enough evidence yet to make such a call. Plus, I just really, really don’t trust tract homes. We’ll just have to see what daylight brings.
 
TH2002 said:
There are reports of homes in Mullica Hill completely leveled with no walls standing. This could have been a violent tornado. Other homes suffered probable EF3 level damage.

Obviously we won't know for sure until NWS Mount Holly does a damage survey though.
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I don't think there is proper anchor-bolting in the construction of homes in this part of the country.
 
vanni9283 said:
I don't think there is proper anchor-bolting in the construction of homes in this part of the country.
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Modern tract homes like this usually are anchor bolted regardless of the region, but tend to be structurally frail (though I have seen a few in the South that weren’t bolted such as Coaling, AL from 4/27 or Harrisburg, NC from 03/02/2012). Think of it like bolting down a cardboard box. Even if the bolts hold, the structure is still going to shred because it’s lightweight and unsturdy.

With that said, let’s see what a thorough damage survey turns up. Always a chance that there’s additional damage we haven’t seen yet, and maybe more well-built homes were also hit. We’ll see soon.
 
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Ok so I’m digging around and looking at the area affected by the Mullica Hill tornado and what I’m finding is more impressive than I expected. It appears the tornado impacted subdivisions of large homes along Cedar Road. The homes in this area are quite large, and utilize brick veneer construction. These aren’t the flimsy vinyl-siding cardboard houses that I first suspected had been hit.

I’ll gladly eat crow in order to say that we could be looking at the first violent tornado candidate in NJ history, or at least in the modern history of the state. Is it likely? I’m not sure, and I have a hunch that we’re more likely to see a high-end EF3 rating.

However, I’ll tell you this though, what I’m seeing so far seems at least as intense as the Newnan, GA tornado, if not stronger. Low-end EF4 is on the table with this one.
 
Some of the EF4 speculation and discussion has been thrown around because of how it evolved on radar, especially the debris signature well over 20,000 ft (as a conservative estimate), combined with the intensity of the velocity signature, and a clear TBSS from the TDS. It may stay below that rating threshold because of construction quality or something, but it had multiple classic indicators that we often don't see outside of violent tornadoes. Interestingly, if it IS somehow rated above EF3, this would be only the third time that's ever happened in U.S. weather records from a tornado spawned by a tropical system or its remnants. The only other two times were an F4 near Galveston, TX in association with Hurricane Carla in 1961 and an F4 in Larose, LA in association with Hurricane Hilda in 1964.
 
buckeye05 said:
Ok so I’m digging around and looking at the area affected by the Mullica Hill tornado and what I’m finding is more impressive than I expected. It appears the tornado impacted subdivisions of large homes along Cedar Road. The homes in this area are quite large, and utilize brick veneer construction. These aren’t the flimsy vinyl-siding cardboard houses that I first suspected had been hit.

I’ll gladly eat crow in order to say that we could be looking at the first violent tornado candidate in NJ history, or at least in the modern history of the state. Is it likely? I’m not sure, and I have a hunch that we’re more likely to see a high-end EF3 rating.

However, I’ll tell you this though, what I’m seeing so far seems at least as intense as the Newnan, GA tornado, if not stronger. Low-end EF4 is on the table with this one.
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This might be the leveled house shown in the photo you posted.3343AD45-0172-4062-A16E-2D593EB78A36.png
 
Ok so I’m digging around and
vanni9283 said:
It's going to come down to the contextual evidence.
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This. If there isn't any additional evidence consistent with a violent tornado (extreme damage to cars, vegetation, ect), they will likely go with high-end EF3. Now if this thing does end up being rated EF4, would this make it the first violent tornado in NJ state history, including pre-1950 events?
 
buckeye05 said:
Ok so I’m digging around and

This. If there isn't any additional evidence consistent with a violent tornado (extreme damage to cars, vegetation, ect), they will likely go with high-end EF3. Now if this thing does end up being rated EF4, would this make it the first violent tornado in NJ state history, including pre-1950 events?
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New Brunswick 1835? Not sure what Grazulis says about that one.

That being said, IMO the context is much, much more impressive than tornadoes like Naperville and at least on par with Newnan.
 
TH2002 said:
New Brunswick 1835? Not sure what Grazulis says about that one.

That being said, IMO the context is much, much more impressive than tornadoes like Naperville and at least on par with Newnan.
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I'm already more impressed with this one than Newnan. Contextual damage is more impressive here. Notice in that photo you posted how the cars have been thrown/pushed from driveways, and how the debris is strewn downstream rather than just piled into heap. With Newnan, vehicles sat untouched in the driveways of leveled homes, and debris was not strewn long distances.

Newnan really should be bumped down to EF3. Honestly, the Fultondale, AL and Sunset Beach, NC tornadoes from earlier this year are better EF4 candidates than Newnan.
 
buckeye05 said:
I'm already more impressed with this one than Newnan. Contextual damage is more impressive here. Notice in that photo you posted how the cars have been thrown/pushed from driveways, and how the debris is strewn downstream rather than just piled into heap. With Newnan, vehicles sat untouched in the driveways of leveled homes, and debris was not strewn long distances.

Newnan really should be bumped down to EF3. Honestly, the Fultondale, AL and Sunset Beach, NC tornadoes from earlier this year are better EF4 candidates than Newnan.
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Did Newnan level any homes that were properly bolted to their foundations? I've read that this one was but I'm not sure:
Coweta_EF4_Fairview.jpg
 
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