I'm feeling more uncertain about the idea of a complex of storms to our south as we get closer to this thing. Most of the guidance is solidly backing away from that. The more I look at the orientation of the trough and the mid/upper winds, I can understand why. Models have inched the trough itself a little farther northwest. Combine that with such southerly deep-layer flow that would be parallel to any line that would try to form down there, and I can easily see how this would be a case where we don't see a linear complex on the coast that sweeps eastward quickly. I'm still not yet sold on areas north of I-20 needing to sound the alarm for this, but we will have to watch it carefully. I do think, given the sharpness and meridional nature of the trough and the deep-layer winds being mostly parallel to the front, the convective mode will be mainly linear... however, like BMX mentioned, that could easily contain embedded supercells, and 2020 alone showed us multiple times that QLCS tornadoes aren't always brief low-end spin-ups.