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Archive Severe Weather 2019

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Taylor Campbell said:
It looks like we are going to get through this week without a significant severe weather threat, but the potential for one next week is growing legs. The EURO model has been consistent on developing several thunderstorms in a large, and sheared warm sector early next week. Although the operational GFS isn’t as enthusiastic, more and more of its ensembles are starting to support the EURO.
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All eyes on next Tuesday. Looks like some pretty good instability overlaps some better shear in a rather confined warm sector over LA/MS/AL.

Also...those PWATs are pushing the 99th percentile. No wonder QPF is 8-12+ inches for the South next week...
 
We're going to have some significant rainfall across the area next week. Widespread river flooding will be likely given some of the QPF totals. Currently thinking 5-7" for most of North MS/North AL/Central East TN/and North GA. Don't be surprised if some placed break 10 inches by the end of next week.
 
Kory said:
We're going to have some significant rainfall across the area next week. Widespread river flooding will be likely given some of the QPF totals. Currently thinking 5-7" for most of North MS/North AL/Central East TN/and North GA. Don't be surprised if some placed break 10 inches by the end of next week.
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The operational GFS is starting to look a lot more like the significant EURO runs with the warm front lifting well north. A very stormy look next week with multiple rounds of showers, and thunderstorms with several severe weather opportunities. Finally, a pattern that extreme weather lovers can enjoy. Prepare now, and stay safe y'all.
 
12z suite showed multi-model consensus the period centred around next weekend (esp. Sat 2/23) being of interest severe wx wise as the large upper trough in the SW ejects at least a piece of it east-northeastward. All models suggest moisture will be available as the early week system does not drag the front into the Gulf. The Euro is the most aggressive solution with essentially the entire trough turning negatively tilted and deepening the surface low a whopping 31 mb in 24 hrs between 12z Saturday and 12z Sunday as it rockets northeastward (with the caveat being that the EPS is rather flat, thus making the operational look like an outlier overall).

Historically, the type of pattern we've been it tends to result in at least one more substantial severe threat somewhere in the Central US, and there are some indications this could be a "pattern changing" period, which typically doesn't go without consequences.
 
todays 12z euro has a potential significant severe weather threat for the mid south... later next weekend...especially we can get some quality moisture return without gulf convection going... its the system andy eluded too yesterday... bringing a pattern change sort of... except its further east.... be interested see models handle this during week.
 
Wednesday looks like it could be a sneaky little event across MS/AL/GA. QPF suggests it is cellular with a 40-50 kt LLJ and 400-800 J/KG on the 12z Euro. After all, it is the cold season where that would be sufficient.
 
I'm biting my tongue on going all-in on the weekend threat for now due to the consistent trend of models backing way off of events at the last second (Which, in this case, would appear to be due to the trough lifting to our NW and not giving us enough forcing) If we make it to Thursday-Friday and the threat is still full steam ahead, I'll start really focusing on it. However, the suites do look quite significant so far..
 
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rolltide_130 said:
I'm biting my tongue on going all-in on the weekend threat for now due to the consistent trend of models backing way off of events at the last second (Which, in this case, would appear to be due to the trough lifting to our NW and not giving us enough forcing) If we make it to Thursday-Friday and the threat is still full steam ahead, I'll start really focusing on it. However, the suites do look quite significant so far..
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Wondering when someone was going go In with me on this threat ... lol look legit on models ... but like u said ... like dangling a carrot o front of us then pulling back... euro per verbatim is pure nasty
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Wondering when someone was going go In with me on this threat ... lol look legit on models ... but like u said ... like dangling a carrot o front of us then pulling back... euro per verbatim is pure nasty
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I’m not trusting the models yet. I won’t be all in until Saturday. It seems like they have missed the last 7 or 8 weather events, be it severe or winter weather.
 
Yeah, Saturday especially has some potential over the ArkLaTex, although some 12z GFS forecast soundings do indicate some potential VBV issues closer to the coast. I guess we can worry about that if it doesn't fall apart before then.
 
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