Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[Atlantic]

I got 2500 K/JG of CAPE in my area:

 

[Brice W]

@Atlantic 5:30 is when we should start to see these storms develop. Very marginal line coming through, probably gonna get some lighting at the worst around us. South and North of us have the worst of it. Around Harrisonburg and south in like Buckingham county.


P.S. I am skywarned certified so if anything does happen it’ll get reported from your very own

 

[warneagle]

Swing and a miss on that one, guys.

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[US_Highway15]

Hodograph where those two cells are right now. Definitely favorable for supercell development. However, what might prevent them from being tornadic are the LCL numbers. They're currently sitting around 1200 -1300.

 

[ColdFront]

Swing and a miss on that one, guys.

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Helpful tip, you don’t have to add a bunch of words to post, there’s a checkbox at the bottom that will let you bypass that.

It’s super annoying they left that post length feature enabled

 

[Ozonelayer]

View attachment 41647
Hodograph where those two cells are right now. Definitely favorable for supercell development.

Yeah, the northern twin is already looking decent in terms of structure on radar.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Dryline has gotten quite a bit sharper with the latest runs, but it's still not super impressive by any means.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 41648

Discrete mode much?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

18Z 3K NAM remains...aggressive, to put it mildly. Quite different solution than the HRRR, but it's been consistent with this look with every run since the event came into range.



Current radar from KARX as posted above makes me think it might be onto something (and not just on something)...

 

[Ozonelayer]

Discrete mode much?

I don't think this was forcasted much by the HRRR, if at all. Did not expect semi discrete/discrete development in MN/WI by any means.

 

[Kds86z]

3 tornado warning just popped. One confirmed.

 

[TornadoFan]

Confirmed tornado near Spring Hill, MN.

 

[Tennie]

I don't think this was forcasted much by the HRRR, if at all. Did not expect semi discrete/discrete development in MN/WI by any means.

Let's see how long the (semi) discrete mode can last.

 

[lake.effect]

Beast of a supercell getting organized just south of River Falls, WI

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Ozonelayer]

View attachment 41650

I did a double take just now.

Are you kidding me!?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Cell currently over Dodgeville looks to be gradually intensifying and is nicely ahead of what will become the main line. Might have potential down the road, but it's moving north-northeast toward Sauk County where the terrain is horrible.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Also, was OWS convection even forcasted? I thought today was just a QLCS threat!

 

[notsoencrypted]

Weather radio just alerted for a tornado watch here until 10PM.