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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

The High Risk definition on SPC's website clearly states "long-lived derecho producing thunderstorm complex"
High risk - An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).
 
JPWX said:
If SPC were to go High tomorrow, it would be for damaging winds especially if models start sniffing out derecho potential.
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That's what I was thinking. Without the 15% tornado risk in the upgrade to moderate, I doubt it goes high for tornadoes. It's so rare to see high risks for damaging winds. I really can't recall the last one lol.
 
JPWX said:
The High Risk definition on SPC's website clearly states "long-lived derecho producing thunderstorm complex"
High risk - An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).
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Thanks. I was just thinking High would make sense if there was a 100 mph+ derecho involved.
 
JPWX said:
The High Risk definition on SPC's website clearly states "long-lived derecho producing thunderstorm complex"
High risk - An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).
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I understand that the definition of a high risk allows for this, but in practice, they are on the record saying that is no longer how they are treating it. I would have to find the original quote but it was directly from a current SPC met.

Found it.

"The cost of a false alarm is very high in our eyes. We only want to sound the loudest alarm when we are confident it will happen. So what are we aiming for? Its simple. Violent tornadoes." - Evan Bentley on what it takes to get a high risk.
 
My mom and I decided to delay our trip north from north Alabama to Michigan to Saturday. Even if there are no tornadoes on I-65, I do not want to risk my new car getting hail damage or struck by lightning in the hotel parking lot. Right now the line is forecast to hit Louisville in the middle of Friday afternoon rush hour. A Derecho and rush hour traffic is not a good combo.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
I'd be interested in more information about this if you want to message it to me! I think it's a pretty useful tool, and it's especially good at pattern recognition, which makes it fun to use for weather.
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The only pattern recognition the major LLMs (ChatGTP, Claude, Gemini, etc) are good at is language pattern recognition. I think you are confusing these with specific machine learning models(like the SPC uses). LLM's are language simulators.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
That's what I was thinking. Without the 15% tornado risk in the upgrade to moderate, I doubt it goes high for tornadoes. It's so rare to see high risks for damaging winds. I really can't recall the last one lol.
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Last one I can think of was June 12th, 2013
 
There was previously a confirmed tornado on this storm in Minnesota. Back to radar-indicated, but who knows what's actually down in that radar hole. Could be last night's spaghetti for all I know!
1747335734796.png
 
The HRRR has a very impressive bowed line tommorow morning through Tennessee. With a couple of intense supercells potentially embedded in it. If you live near Memphis or extreme north Mississippi tommorow. I wouldn't go to bed tonight without making sure your weather radio works. Because the enviroment will probably be conducive for a strong tornado even in the morning, if we had a spin up or one could get semi discreet.
 
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