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Severe Threat - Feb 27-28th, 2024

One doesn't simply give up on Tuesday/Wednesday's severe weather threat for the Mid-South because of models and trends.
Just as one simply doesn't walk into Mordor

One Does Not Simply Lord Of The Rings GIF
 
wxTwitter is going to town on the Tuesday setup, but I'm not sold on it. Looking at a lot of soundings from the models looks like moisture could be a problem, and a possible cap could be as well. Might have isolated issues, but I doubt an outbreak of any robustness. *let's see how well this ages...*
 
wx_guy said:
wxTwitter is going to town on the Tuesday setup, but I'm not sold on it. Looking at a lot of soundings from the models looks like moisture could be a problem, and a possible cap could be as well. Might have isolated issues, but I doubt an outbreak of any robustness. *let's see how well this ages...*
Click to expand...
Its Happening Ron Paul GIF

Like this...... LOL!
 
Watch SPC shift the whole Marginal/Slight Risk southward again..... LOL!
 
Case in point. 21z is when the current SREF shows the highest potential significant tornado ingredients over a tiny area in Illinois and Indiana. At that time, the probability of convective precipitation is only about 50%. And the soundings favor LP setup, so it might be a case of only a small number of discrete supercells. FWIW, if you look at the SREF's probability of 0.1 in or more of convective precipitation, it's only about 10% across that area. So moisture could definitely be an issue.


1708915349598.png
 
Justin Hindman Hindy said:
Spc has been of their rocker this year. Don't even issue a d6 or further unless your 100 percent sure. That was a big outlook on day 7 just to go away lol.
Click to expand...
When it comes to weather, nothing is ever 100% certain until it happens. Predicting the weather is not as black and white as a lot of people think.

Think of sports brackets hahahahahaha
 
models change as time goes on. it's a d'ed if you, d'ed if you don't situation if you're the spc. i think they handled it as best they could...it's not their fault the twitter hype machines treat model voodoo land as gospel when they're hungry for a good chase.

personally, as someone in the risk area (albeit barely) tomorrow, i'm looking forward to a good thunderstorm for the first time in a minute.
 
This season has been wacky overall as well. Have heard a few people say it has to do with the Niño; either way there's definitely been something making these setups more difficult to forecast accurately this year.
 
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