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Severe Threat - Feb 27-28th, 2024

JPWX

JPWX

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One doesn't simply give up on Tuesday/Wednesday's severe weather threat for the Mid-South because of models and trends.
Just as one simply doesn't walk into Mordor

One Does Not Simply Lord Of The Rings GIF
 
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wx_guy

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wxTwitter is going to town on the Tuesday setup, but I'm not sold on it. Looking at a lot of soundings from the models looks like moisture could be a problem, and a possible cap could be as well. Might have isolated issues, but I doubt an outbreak of any robustness. *let's see how well this ages...*
 
JPWX

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wx_guy said:
wxTwitter is going to town on the Tuesday setup, but I'm not sold on it. Looking at a lot of soundings from the models looks like moisture could be a problem, and a possible cap could be as well. Might have isolated issues, but I doubt an outbreak of any robustness. *let's see how well this ages...*
Click to expand...
Its Happening Ron Paul GIF

Like this...... LOL!
 
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Case in point. 21z is when the current SREF shows the highest potential significant tornado ingredients over a tiny area in Illinois and Indiana. At that time, the probability of convective precipitation is only about 50%. And the soundings favor LP setup, so it might be a case of only a small number of discrete supercells. FWIW, if you look at the SREF's probability of 0.1 in or more of convective precipitation, it's only about 10% across that area. So moisture could definitely be an issue.


1708915349598.png
 
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KevinH

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Justin Hindman Hindy said:
Spc has been of their rocker this year. Don't even issue a d6 or further unless your 100 percent sure. That was a big outlook on day 7 just to go away lol.
Click to expand...
When it comes to weather, nothing is ever 100% certain until it happens. Predicting the weather is not as black and white as a lot of people think.

Think of sports brackets hahahahahaha
 
cincywx

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models change as time goes on. it's a d'ed if you, d'ed if you don't situation if you're the spc. i think they handled it as best they could...it's not their fault the twitter hype machines treat model voodoo land as gospel when they're hungry for a good chase.

personally, as someone in the risk area (albeit barely) tomorrow, i'm looking forward to a good thunderstorm for the first time in a minute.
 
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WxMan42711 said:
models change as time goes on. it's a d'ed if you, d'ed if you don't situation if you're the spc. i think they handled it as best they could...it's not their fault the twitter hype machines treat model voodoo land as gospel when they're hungry for a good chase.
Click to expand...
That part.
 
Clancy

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This season has been wacky overall as well. Have heard a few people say it has to do with the Niño; either way there's definitely been something making these setups more difficult to forecast accurately this year.
 
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