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Severe Threat - Feb 27-28th, 2024

Justin Hindman Hindy said:
Spc has been of their rocker this year. Don't even issue a d6 or further unless your 100 percent sure. That was a big outlook on day 7 just to go away lol.
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That's not how probabilistic forecasting works, especially in the case of SPC's convective outlooks. It's an iterative process where your areas of greater confidence usually shrink as you move closer in.
 
Just a point of view. If,as good as SPC is and with the awesome professionals that work there cannot get it right at times during their Days 6-8 outlooks, then how about the TV mets shut their traps on social media about those of us out here that post graphics and our own point of views on the models/forecasts at long range themselves?

I've really picked up on this trend over the last couple of years.
 
Timhsv said:
Just a point of view. If,as good as SPC is and with the awesome professionals that work there cannot get it right at times during their Days 6-8 outlooks, then how about the TV mets shut their traps on social media about those of us out here that post graphics and our own point of views on the models/forecasts at long range themselves?

I've really picked up on this trend over the last couple of years.
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RIGHT! I'm not on social anymore but seems like it's still as hostile as ever on wxtwitter. Since being off social, it's given me more time to focus on long range forecasting and looking back at past data, etc. Which has been most interesting as well as helpful.

If anyone wants to know more about what I've been working on, I'll be glad to tell you.
 
The SPC maintains slight risk on the updated Day 2, however I see the threat as an enhanced risk.
 
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Long range hrrr is pretty gnarly for Illinois. That's status quo for the HRRR at long range but still. But will any convection initiate
 
18z NAM 3k for west-central Illinois definitely looks rough. The simulated radar shows a handful of discrete tornado cells popping up. Don't think it'll be a widespread outbreak, but a couple/few problematic areas is looking more possible.


1708992358262.png
 
..SUMMARY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING GUSTS,
AND TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANT, WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

..OH VALLEY

A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING PARTS OF MO BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MOST 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN AROUND/AFTER DUSK
AS THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM SOUTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. THESE
STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ROUGHLY ALONG THE
OH RIVER, MOVING INTO PARTS OF OH/WV/PA BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY.
INITIAL STORMS MAY BE DISCRETE, WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO FAST-MOVING BOWING
STRUCTURES WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE ADDED
AN ENH RISK AREA FOR THIS SCENARIO OVERNIGHT.
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1709052103697.png

Ralph Wiggum Danger GIF
 
Whenever the severe season is quiet, I sometimes take the opportunity to focus on my other hobbies, like repairing old joysticks to use on my Commodore 64. But as soon as there's a D1 ENH with a 10% hatched tornado contour, it's time to wake the Weather Weenie™ inside of me...
 
Northern ENH upgraded to 10% hatched TOR. Haven’t had a chance to look at models today but SPC seems bullish compared to even this morning.
 
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