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Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

Taylor Campbell
Posted 27 April 2011 - 12:29 AM


Fred Gossage, on 27 April 2011 - 12:26 AM, said:

Me too... that banner is often the first thing they do on the website.
Click to expand...


Hmmm. I guess we shall see soon where they put it.
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 27 April 2011 - 12:30 AM

Tim, on 27 April 2011 - 12:28 AM, said:

Me Too.
ditto here....
 
JeffnTrussville
Posted 27 April 2011 - 12:30 AM

Fred Gossage, on 27 April 2011 - 12:26 AM, said:

Me too... that banner is often the first thing they do on the website.
Click to expand...


Is there any doubt there will be a high risk somewhere in the area? I think the question will be where.

 
weatherguy
Posted 27 April 2011 - 12:34 AM

Clouds will clear late morning:
sv1.jpg

Above will make this:
sv2.jpg

Above will make this:
sv3.jpg
Will make this:
A big outbreak at 12:00 noon and starting to move into Alabama from Mississippi, whoa, will be a long day:

sv4.jpg
 
griteater
Posted 27 April 2011 - 12:36 AM

HRRR simulated radar performed quite well in the NC outbreak on 4/16 with respect to showing the development of discrete supercells.

ARCC, on 26 April 2011 - 11:40 PM, said:

That isn't all, check this sucker out.
Click to expand...

 
steveklein
Posted 27 April 2011 - 12:42 AM

seems like storms on 4/27 will be in the same area as 4/15... with ground zero likely being over east mississippi and west alabama.
 
steveklein
Posted 27 April 2011 - 12:47 AM

is the threat over from a line from memphis to shreveport to college station and points northwest?
 
JeffnTrussville
Posted 27 April 2011 - 12:51 AM

steveklein, on 27 April 2011 - 12:47 AM, said:

is the threat over from a line from memphis to shreveport to college station and points northwest?
Click to expand...

Looks like more storms are firing back in Oklahoma?
 
ZackH
Posted 27 April 2011 - 12:57 AM

steveklein, on 27 April 2011 - 12:42 AM, said:

seems like storms on 4/27 will be in the same area as 4/15... with ground zero likely being over east mississippi and west alabama.
Click to expand...


I believe they will be more widespread and the action will stretch further north than 4/15... South/Middle TN could easily be a part of ground zero.
Edited by ZackH, 27 April 2011 - 12:58 AM.

 
weatherguy
Posted 27 April 2011 - 01:01 AM

New day 1, High Risk:
The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a major severe weather outbreak
day1otlk201104271200prt.gif
 
TimHSV
Posted 27 April 2011 - 01:02 AM

Is anyone seeing the SRV out of KJAN? I am seeing 4 TVS signatures with 2 strong TVS indicators with a rather large area of shear being detected at 0.5 at nearly 90knts? Very interesting and very alarming as it heads towards Yazoo City, MS.
Edited by TimHSV, 27 April 2011 - 01:03 AM.

 
Taylor Campbell
Posted 27 April 2011 - 01:03 AM

weatherguy, on 27 April 2011 - 01:01 AM, said:

New day 1, High Risk:
The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a major severe weather outbreak
Click to expand...


Oh good gosh!

WIND FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH/JET MAX...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A TORNADO OUTBREAK...WITH LONG-TRACKED STRONG TO VIOLENT
TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH RISK AREA.

Edited by TaylorCampbell, 27 April 2011 - 01:10 AM.

 
will2013
Posted 27 April 2011 - 01:06 AM

So What do you guys think the timeframe of this system will be? An all day thing? (in N Alabama)
 
TimHSV
Posted 27 April 2011 - 01:49 AM

00Z NAM has 360K Theta into Western AL. by 18Z....Hard to believe the volatile type airmass that will in place across Alabama..
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 27 April 2011 - 01:50 AM

It should be noted that the line is already breaking apart into smaller segments. This will make it DAMN hard to organize any kind of cold pool. A disorganized area of storms not associated with an established cold pool.... is much MUCH MUCH easier to recover from... than if we had this big bowing MCS plowing through here.

 
SWL
Posted 27 April 2011 - 01:54 AM

kbh_81, on 27 April 2011 - 01:34 AM, said:

Why do you say yet? you think we may be put in the high?
Click to expand...


It's possible, nothing is etched in stone. Either way we're way too close to it for comfort...
 
weatherguy
Posted 27 April 2011 - 01:55 AM

More detailed view
RISK10000.png

Will be a Long day, Everybody better have a plan ready when a warning is issued.
 
kbh_81
Posted 27 April 2011 - 01:59 AM

Off to bed. Pray for the best and prepare for the worst is all we can do. Everyone stay safe. Will check later for updates.
 
TimHSV
Posted 27 April 2011 - 02:01 AM

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS THROUGH WCNTRL AND NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 270656Z - 270800Z

SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH SRN MS...CNTRL AND NRN AL
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.


EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL MS
INTO NRN LA IS MOVING EAST AT 40-50 KT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND
BOWING SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE
LINE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. A
STRONG 60-70 KT LLJ WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING WITH VERY LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF
LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
DAMAGING WIND.
 
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