Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:10 PM

my surface temp is 86 with73 dewpoint.....errrr 88 now...
Edited by mwbwhorton, 26 April 2011 - 02:11 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

Jenifer Jerri
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:17 PM

mbrewer, on 26 April 2011 - 02:04 PM, said:

The Shreveport 1pm balloon sounding shows a convective temperature of 77, which is what they are near right now. It's about to get interesting.

Are you going to do any chasing with this system Michael? I hope our little town fares well tomorrow

 

[TW Archive]

FlorenceWx
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:19 PM

83 temp, 64 DP here currently, big time sunshine

 

[TW Archive]

mbrewer
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:23 PM

Jenifer Jerri, on 26 April 2011 - 02:17 PM, said:

Are you going to do any chasing with this system Michael? I hope our little town fares well tomorrow

Jerri, we will be chasing tomorrow

 

[TW Archive]

steveklein
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:25 PM

any particular reason why the SPC has the probabilities falling off so quickly south of the high risk area, like across north and central LA? what's the limiting factor across Louisiana that's going to inhibit these storms?

 

[TW Archive]

gawxnative
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:27 PM

Well looks like last few days (St Louis/ Little Rock etc) has been a warm up/wake up for the broadcast mets, NWS offices, EMA, and public safety sectors....
In some 40 years of "following weather" I do not remember such a wide spread multi-mode severe event than this one as it begins to play out. The potential for "devistating/widespread" flooding to all sizes of rivers and streams over such a large area, coupled with a very high intensity severe storm event will be a challenge to keep up with.
Just a thought, AND IN NO WAY BEING DISRESPECTFUL to any mets, broadcast or NWS, I would give a thought that since they may be overwhelmed with multiple very dangerous storms, if you see something about to impact family or friends etc, get the word to them. Broadcast folks can only present so many items at once, and some things may be lost or delayed in the shuffle, especially if there is a threat in their "core counties". So let's all watch out for each other over the next few days...
OK off the "soapbox"

 

[TW Archive]

steveklein
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:28 PM

i think the first storm to go SVR/TOR may be the one developing south of Fort Worth that could cross I-35 near where it splits into 35E/35W

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:29 PM

Small red storm on radar south of dfw now.....

 

[TW Archive]

steveklein
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:31 PM

steveklein, on 26 April 2011 - 02:28 PM, said:

i think the first storm to go SVR/TOR may be the one developing south of Fort Worth that could cross I-35 near where it splits into 35E/35W

wow, last 2 scans it's beefed up, my prediction may actually come true.

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:33 PM

other blips firing nw of tyler atm...

 

[TW Archive]

kbh_81
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:35 PM

Well said gawxnative.

 

[TW Archive]

steveklein
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:36 PM

storms getting going pretty quickly east of Little Rock.

 

[TW Archive]

Mason Dixon
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:36 PM

Surprised the Stuttgart area of AR is not under a TOR watch

 

[TW Archive]

steveklein
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:38 PM

seems as if initial convection has formed along basically a straight line running several hundred miles from central texas to east arkansas.

 

[TW Archive]

vegaseagle
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:41 PM

Looks like it is starting up now

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:44 PM

i look for that cell south of dfw to be warned soon...still strenghthening...second cell developing betwwen Austin and waco...
Edited by mwbwhorton, 26 April 2011 - 02:47 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

South AL Wx
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:45 PM


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS TO THE MO
BOOTHEEL/WESTERN KY/FAR SOUTHERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261941Z - 262115Z

CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS FOR A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS
EASTERN AR INTO WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
WITHIN THE HOUR.

OVER THE PAST HOUR...VISIBLE SATELLITE REFLECTS DEEPENING CUMULIFORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL AR INTO WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY...WITH INCIPIENT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY NOTED EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WITH STRONG HEATING
/ALREADY NEAR 80F OR ABOVE/ OCCURRING ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE

 

[TW Archive]

<<Archive Loss>>
A portion of the archive was lost at this point between 2:41pm and 3:41pm.

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 03:41 PM

Seeing a bit of a hook i think atm....

 

[TW Archive]

weatherguy
Posted 26 April 2011 - 03:42 PM

Wow, New 15z SREF has Median Derecho Parameter at 9! Median Significant Tornado Parameter at solid 8! High risk looks likely to me after midnight for part of AL. Numbers are about twice as strong as what April 15th showed over S AL. (Especially the wind threat) I see 60% severe wind probability and 30% tornado easily being issued after midnight for Wednesday.