Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

[TW Archive]

SD
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:33 AM

ZackH, on 26 April 2011 - 10:22 AM, said:

Had a friend forecaster saying that this is starting to look mainly linear for all of the Tennessee areas on Wednesday and I'm looking at the models and just don't see it... anyone else?

To me the eastern half of Tn looks pretty junky through most of the day tomorrow, then a line comes through late in the day or the evening. Looks like you would have to get southwest of BNA to get into the good tornado/supercell threat.

 

[TW Archive]

ZackH
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:39 AM

SD, on 26 April 2011 - 10:33 AM, said:

To me the eastern half of Tn looks pretty junky through most of the day tomorrow, then a line comes through late in the day or the evening. Looks like you would have to get southwest of BNA to get into the good tornado/supercell threat.

Right, I know Eastern TN won't be huge... we are hoping to get all the way towards Nashville in time... but a little worried about racing the clock since we cannot leave Asheville till around 12:30ish.

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:40 AM

believe it or not i did not get one drop of rain last night,i hoped it would as it might have stabilized the air some....looks very serious here this afternoon and evening.

 

[TW Archive]

FoulWeather
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:52 AM

Tor:Con upgrades to a 9 out of 10.

 

[TW Archive]

djbarker
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:52 AM

FoulWeather, on 26 April 2011 - 10:52 AM, said:

Tor:Con upgrades to a 9 out of 10.

For which area(s)?

 

[TW Archive]

AprilA
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:53 AM

TWC is showing a huge white area on their map.. And the Tor:Con has been raised to 9 for NE TX/ S AR..
Here's a link to the Poplar Bluff levee breach story: http://www.kfvs12.com/story/14513133/levees-hold-1000-people-evacuated It's breached in 2 places. And another levee in Stoddard co MO has breached...

 

[TW Archive]

rlsrlj
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:54 AM

Day 1 high risk being expanded to include NW Miss and west Tenn.

 

[TW Archive]

bingcrosbyb
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:01 AM

STRMCHSR, on 26 April 2011 - 10:29 AM, said:

Crazy 0-3km EHI 15z tomorrow South MS.

<<image not saved>>

First time I've seen EHI values that high. Ever.

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:02 AM

Not sure ive seen 9/10 Tor con on twc since they started that....

 

[TW Archive]

tbone
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:04 AM

bingcrosbyb, on 26 April 2011 - 11:01 AM, said:

First time I've seen EHI values that high. Ever.

almost off the charts!

 

[TW Archive]

skywatcher22
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:08 AM

mwbwhorton, on 26 April 2011 - 11:02 AM, said:

Not sure ive seen 9/10 Tor con on twc since they started that....

I'm not sure I'm prepared to see what I could possibly see across Southern AR later. I really don't want to come across death or destruction while I'm out chasing.

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:11 AM

This is very serious i hope people are paying attention as lives are on the line today and tommorrow.The tornado preconditions are as serious as i ever remember in fact for ne Louisiana im not sure i ever remember it this high ...stay safe everyone....

 

[TW Archive]

trency911
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:12 AM

HRRR developing some nasty supercells in NE Texas later, now I see why it's a 9/10.
My link

 

[TW Archive]

Guest_duckfetchr_*
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:13 AM

Matt Grantham, on 26 April 2011 - 11:08 AM, said:

I'm not sure I'm prepared to see what I could possibly see across Southern AR later. I really don't want to come across death or destruction while I'm out chasing.

I hope for everyone's sake you don't see it either...

 

[TW Archive]

ALhurricane
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:19 AM

Latest GFS maintains a more stout cap further south across MS/AL. Going to be interesting to see if it can be overcome... if so long track tornadoes will be likely as far south as the Highway 84 corridor on south AL/MS.

 

[TW Archive]

aarontabr
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:19 AM

mwbwhorton, on 26 April 2011 - 11:11 AM, said:

This is very serious i hope people are paying attention as lives are on the line today and tommorrow.The tornado preconditions are as serious as i ever remember in fact for ne Louisiana im not sure i ever remember it this high ...stay safe everyone....

Probably not since February 1971.

 

[TW Archive]

AprilA
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:22 AM

Updated: April 26, 2011 11:45 am ETDeveloped by Dr. Greg Forbes, (Find him on Facebook)The Weather Channel's severe weather expert, the TOR:CON index is an estimate of the likelihood of tornado activity within a given time period.

Areas listed below have an above-average threat of having severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and/or tornadoes for the specified days.


Severe Weather Overview


All ingredients are coming together for a dangerous tornado situation in northeast TX, south AR as a surface low forms in TX, wind shear is favorable, instability is very large, and an upper level jet stream is blasting into the area. Farther north and east, lesser-instability and wind shear will bring severe thunderstorms and an isolated tornado threat. Severe thunderstorms and at least isolated tornadoes will continue Wednesday and Thursday as the cold front marches east. Wednesday forecasts below have not yet been updated.



Forecast for Tuesday, April 26

AL north and west-central - 3
AR north - 6
AR south - 9
GA north - 2
IL south - 3
IN - 4
KY west - 5
KYcentral and east - 3 to 4
LA north - 8LA central - 4
MI southeast - 3 to 4
MO southeast - 4
MS northwest - 8
MS northeast - 5
MS central - 4
NC west - 2
NY west - 3
NY east-central - 2 to 3
OH west - 4
OH east - 3 to 4
OK west and south-central - 2
OK southeast - 6
PA west - 3
PA northeast - 2 to 3
TN west - 7TN middle - 5
TN east - 3 to 4
TX northeast - 9 TX north-central - 4
VA southwest - 2
WV - 2
other areas - 2 or less


Forecast for Wednesday, April 27

AL north - 7
AL south - 5
AR east - 4
DC - 3
FL west panhandle - 3 to 4
FL east panhandle - 3 to 4 night
GA north - 5
GA west-central - 4
GA south and east-central - 3 to 4 night
IL south - 3
IN south and east-central - 3 to 4
KY east - 6
KY west - 4
LA west - 3 to 4
LA east - 4 to 5
MD west - 3 to 4
MI - southeast 3
MO southeast - 3 to 4MS west and north - 4
MS southeast - 5
NC west - 4
NC central - 3 to 4 night
NJ north - 2
NY - 2 to 3
OH - 4 to 5
PA - 3 to 4
SC west - 4
SC central and east - 3 to 4 night
TN middle - 7
TN west - 4 to 5
TN east - 5 to 6
VA west and north - 3
VT - 2
WV - 4 to 5

3-4 here..

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:23 AM

aarontabr, on 26 April 2011 - 11:19 AM, said:

Probably not since February 1971.

Well thats why i don't remember then,as i was born in April 1971.......

 

[TW Archive]

vegaseagle
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:25 AM

WxFreak, on 26 April 2011 - 08:45 AM, said:

Without getting to business-like here, I would like to advise companies, small businesses, and even large plant sites to take the extra time to emphasize tornado safety today. I will be assuming we all have an EAP (since OSHA requires us all to have one, if not shame on you). If it is at all possible, assemble your workforce and initiate a tornado "drill" so to speak. Honestly, an hour (at the most) lost production will not bankrupt you to heighten awareness to tomorrow's situation. I have to tell you, being a plant manager, one thing that scares the hell out of me (pardon the french) is that there will be one employee under my supervision that will not take this seriously, and cause the rest of the plant to follow suit. Monkey see, monkey do. Make sure you go over how serious this is, and show pictures from what has already happened. I had a safety meeting this morning with my staff and did just that, and I gotta say I was impressed at the level of awareness it seemed to create with everyone, not just the ones that truly care about safety. Sure there's one in every crowd, but even that one seemed to accept the message. Trust me, a little emphasis on safety won't hurt anything. In a perfect world, we could all shut down and write tomorrow off as an emergency weather day, but yeah when will that ever happen? So, considering most of us will still go to work like every other day, make sure you are prepared and know where to gorather than just think so, or follow the crowd. Sorry for the book, but bing you got me sparked with the company plan comment, and workplace safety is one thing I am very passionate about. Great call.
GREAT IDEA!

Edited by vegaseagle, 26 April 2011 - 11:26 AM.

 

[TW Archive]

wxfan22
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:29 AM

Some of the current thermodynamics and composite indices across North MS, West TN, and Eastern Arkansas are very impressive.