Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

[TW Archive]

Charles Loring
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:21 AM

Above image grabs my attention...hopefully everyone elses too. I would not be surprised if we see a Day 2 High across portions of MS/AL/and TN. Nonetheless, we should see them spread the MDT risk zone further southward...

Here is my, predicted, SPC Day 2 outlook...

 

[TW Archive]

WxFreak
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:45 AM

bingcrosbyb, on 26 April 2011 - 08:13 AM, said:

Good grief. This is the kind of stuff last seen in April '98. It's been a long time since we've had a beast like this one on our hands. I hate dramatizing things, but what do you do when all of the parameters point towards multiple large tornadoes on the ground at the same time? I hope everyone has told friends & family about the upcoming event. Make sure you also know your company tornado plan.

Without getting to business-like here, I would like to advise companies, small businesses, and even large plant sites to take the extra time to emphasize tornado safety today. I will be assuming we all have an EAP (since OSHA requires us all to have one, if not shame on you). If it is at all possible, assemble your workforce and initiate a tornado "drill" so to speak. Honestly, an hour (at the most) lost production will not bankrupt you to heighten awareness to tomorrow's situation. I have to tell you, being a plant manager, one thing that scares the hell out of me (pardon the french) is that there will be one employee under my supervision that will not take this seriously, and cause the rest of the plant to follow suit. Monkey see, monkey do. Make sure you go over how serious this is, and show pictures from what has already happened. I had a safety meeting this morning with my staff and did just that, and I gotta say I was impressed at the level of awareness it seemed to create with everyone, not just the ones that truly care about safety. Sure there's one in every crowd, but even that one seemed to accept the message. Trust me, a little emphasis on safety won't hurt anything. In a perfect world, we could all shut down and write tomorrow off as an emergency weather day, but yeah when will that ever happen? So, considering most of us will still go to work like every other day, make sure you are prepared and know where to go rather than just think so, or follow the crowd. Sorry for the book, but bing you got me sparked with the company plan comment, and workplace safety is one thing I am very passionate about. Great call.

 

[TW Archive]

Charles Loring
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:52 AM

WxFreak, on 26 April 2011 - 08:45 AM, said:

Without getting to business-like here, I would like to advise companies, small businesses, and even large plant sites to take the extra time to emphasize tornado safety today. I will be assuming we all have an EAP (since OSHA requires us all to have one, if not shame on you). If it is at all possible, assemble your workforce and initiate a tornado "drill" so to speak. Honestly, an hour (at the most) lost production will not bankrupt you to heighten awareness to tomorrow's situation. I have to tell you, being a plant manager, one thing that scares the hell out of me (pardon the french) is that there will be one employee under my supervision that will not take this seriously, and cause the rest of the plant to follow suit. Monkey see, monkey do. Make sure you go over how serious this is, and show pictures from what has already happened. I had a safety meeting this morning with my staff and did just that, and I gotta say I was impressed at the level of awareness it seemed to create with everyone, not just the ones that truly care about safety. Sure there's one in every crowd, but even that one seemed to accept the message. Trust me, a little emphasis on safety won't hurt anything. In a perfect world, we could all shut down and write tomorrow off as an emergency weather day, but yeah when will that ever happen? So, considering most of us will still go to work like every other day, make sure you are prepared and know where to gorather than just think so, or follow the crowd. Sorry for the book, but bing you got me sparked with the company plan comment, and workplace safety is one thing I am very passionate about. Great call.

Wish there were more managers like you. For instance, where my mom works...the plant manager is the one guy who doesn't take these wanrings seriously. He wants his guys working OUTSIDE no matter if they are under a Tornado Warning or not, stupid, but that is how he is. He sees it as, "oh what are the odds a tornado tears through here!?"

 

[TW Archive]

WxFreak
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:01 AM

Charles Loring, on 26 April 2011 - 08:52 AM, said:

Wish there were more managers like you. For instance, where my mom works...the plant manager is the one guy who doesn't take these wanrings seriously. He wants his guys working OUTSIDE no matter if they are under a Tornado Warning or not, stupid, but that is how he is. He sees it as, "oh what are the odds a tornado tears through here!?"

Unfortunately, there are many mgrs like that in business today. But, when he has to report numerous recordable injuries at the same time due to not activating his EAP when situations warrant, OSHA will make sure this guy never sees the inside of a plant or any business ever again. There is a reason the OSHA guideline regarding EAP says "SHALL have" rather than "should have".

 

[TW Archive]

WxFreak
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:02 AM

I could go on all day about this, but back to the show now. Sorry folks!

 

[TW Archive]

gawxnative
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:02 AM

Charles Loring, on 26 April 2011 - 08:52 AM, said:

Wish there were more managers like you. For instance, where my mom works...the plant manager is the one guy who doesn't take these wanrings seriously. He wants his guys working OUTSIDE no matter if they are under a Tornado Warning or not, stupid, but that is how he is. He sees it as, "oh what are the odds a tornado tears through here!?"

Also the time to reach out to all our friends/neighbors, social media friends to
1) This is a serious weather situation
2) Plan for it
3) Have a way to keep up with warnings
4) Take these warnings VERY SERIOUSLY!!!

 

[TW Archive]

AprilA
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:13 AM

Unfortunately, so so many people don't take weather threats seriously unless their local tv met is screaming it out of the tv

I have one friend that always calls/texts me when the weather starts looking bad because she knows I keep up to date. She in turn alerts all of her neighbors, friends, etc. We've been really lucky here, but someday...

 

[TW Archive]

smokedevil
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:14 AM

I have numerous friends ( as i'm sure you all do ) who never take this stuff serious, so I try and put the word out on FB without scaring the bejeebus out of folks. I was actually surprised to get messages back thanking me, saying they hadnt even heard that bad weather was coming.
I wanted to tell them, but didn't, Do you have a TV? then turn it on. A Radio? turn it on. If you're on FB then you have access to weather sites. Look and read. soooo frustrating.
I really hate to say it, but just like everything else, it will take something bad happening to wake folks up.
Edited by smokedevil, 26 April 2011 - 09:16 AM.

 

[TW Archive]

djbarker
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:18 AM

The thing with social media though is to use that in moderation. Only save it for the most red-letter events (the impending one notwithstanding) or else people will begin to laugh you off as one who cries wolf. The attention span of social media friends is very small...you need to captivate them without being overly dramatic.

 

[TW Archive]

smokedevil
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:19 AM

djbarker, on 26 April 2011 - 09:18 AM, said:

The thing with social media though is to use that in moderation. Only save it for the most red-letter events (the impending one notwithstanding) or else people will begin to laugh you off as one who cries wolf. The attention span of social media friends is very small...you need to captivate them without being overly dramatic.

I agree. I never mention it on there unless the threat is very real, such as last weeks event.

 

[TW Archive]

ARCC
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:38 AM

I think an important aspect of this event is that low clouds will not severely hamper this system and could in fact make it worse. Sun or not, unless we see a lot of junk convection, it's gonna get nasty.

 

[TW Archive]

SD
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:42 AM

New run of the RUC has EHI values of 6-12 for most of the Arklatex as we get toward the 20z-0z period. Wow, looks like a snowfall map down there

 

[TW Archive]

Tyler Penland
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:57 AM

Where can I view the GFS EHI? Twisterdata doesn't have it. The NAM doesn't have it get over a 1 here.
Also, our lifted index is forecast around -6/-7 or maybe even -8. I must say I haven't seen that number that high in a very, very long time. Also shear looks great.

 

[TW Archive]

Taylor Campbell
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:08 AM

Tyler Penland, on 26 April 2011 - 09:57 AM, said:

Where can I view the GFS EHI? Twisterdata doesn't have it. The NAM doesn't have it get over a 1 here.
Also, our lifted index is forecast around -6/-7 or maybe even -8. I must say I haven't seen that number that high in a very, very long time. Also shear looks great.

try this http://wxcaster.com/conus_0012_us_models.htm

 

[TW Archive]

SD
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:09 AM

Tyler Penland, on 26 April 2011 - 09:57 AM, said:

Where can I view the GFS EHI? Twisterdata doesn't have it. The NAM doesn't have it get over a 1 here.
Also, our lifted index is forecast around -6/-7 or maybe even -8. I must say I haven't seen that number that high in a very, very long time. Also shear looks great.

go to vortex.plymouth.edu click on make your own scroll down and click on individual soundings and there ya go....

^that was an even better suggestion than mine
Edited by SD, 26 April 2011 - 10:10 AM.

 

[TW Archive]

wxfan22
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:15 AM

At 8 this morning conditions around nw ms were cool and stable. I just walked outside again and the sun is peaking out and it's becoming very warm and muggy.....probably not the best sign

 

[TW Archive]

Tyler Penland
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:17 AM

Thanks a ton!
Its showing quite a bit higher too.
Edited by Tyler Penland, 26 April 2011 - 10:20 AM.

 

[TW Archive]

ZackH
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:22 AM

Had a friend forecaster saying that this is starting to look mainly linear for all of the Tennessee areas on Wednesday and I'm looking at the models and just don't see it... anyone else?

 

[TW Archive]

STRMCHSR
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:29 AM

Crazy 0-3km EHI 15z tomorrow South MS.

 

[TW Archive]

aarontabr
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:31 AM

Levee breach at Poplar Bluff, MO.