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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

KevinH said:
I’ll say it….

Are we all just ignoring the latest D2 then? Oh ok lol
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Excuse Me Reaction GIF by One Chicago
 
Seems the 18z 3km NAM is catching on to what I've suspected for a while and adds to my concern about the supercells/increased tornado risk for North MS.

This is at 7pm Sunday night. You can see those little blue dots of potential storms trying to pop around that time.
2nd image is valid at 3am Monday morning. Line is broken not solid.
3rd image is valid at 6am Monday morning. By that time, it is a solid line over Alabama.
 

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UncleJuJu98 said:
Yeah... I don't like how this 00z HRRR run looks. (Storms grow upscale quick though at least)
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I definitely don't like that look on the storm it has moving through Monroe County, MS.
 

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Been busy most of today, so just catching up on things. Haven't gotten around to running a new high-res model for tomorrow + Monday yet, but I'll probably run it overnight and report on it tomorrow morning.


I thought I'd show you all a sneak peak of a new product I've been developing for my model, though, and it's an explicitly convective product (so the resolution needs to be ~3km or less). It is the Threat Potential Overlay! It factors in a LOT of raw and composite metrics on 4 key hazards: Tornadoes, Hail, Winds, and freshwater Flooding. It uses a statistical algorithm to find and isolate storm cores and encircles them, categorizes them by their hazard, and finally ranks the relative risk for that storm cell (Limited, Moderate, or High). It is designed to point out *general trends* of storms that may be a danger to life or property. Note the emphasis -- it's only meant for general trends, it doesn't mean "Oh, a tornado is gonna go by Granberry's Country store at 7:00 PM tomorrow night" obviously.

Shown here is a run from a couple days ago that I used to test it on. Note the red indicates tornado potential and the purple indicates large hail potential.

Thought you all would appreciate it. It can be overlaid upon any other product on my model (here, I have it over the Composite Radar, but Updraft Helicity would be nice too).


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wx_guy said:
lol just judging by the speed of new pages on this thread, interest in this event has CRATERED haha
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The thread for the back-to-back MDT days May 25-26 last year was only at like 18-20 pages at this point on the 24th. Didn't pop until the events started. A lot of it has to do with what areas are affected. Seems like there's a lot of Dixie Alley, particularly Alabama guys here, so I noticed risks that center more around Dixie get more pages pre-outbreak. Nothing wrong with that at all though, as everyone focuses more on things that affect their area.
 
Well, 00Z HRRR definitely isn't backing down at all. In fact, a much more troubling look for those of us in GA. Very nasty QLCS develops out of cellular activity further west, and carries a substantial wind and QLCS tornado risk with it. Some hail might accompany it, as well as a lot of lightning.
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Both NAM 3km and HRRR show convective re-development behind the main QLCS on Monday. Accompanied by at least modest instability and elevated SRH, we could actually see some problems out of these storms, if they do develop. A little bit of everything would be possible hazards-wise. Biggest question marks are 1) how far north the storms develop, which would be dependent on destabilization, preceding storm coverage and any boundaries they leave behind, and 2) whether storms actually develop at all.
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OhOkayThen said:
The thread for the back-to-back MDT days May 25-26 last year was only at like 18-20 pages at this point on the 24th. Didn't pop until the events started. A lot of it has to do with what areas are affected. Seems like there's a lot of Dixie Alley, particularly Alabama guys here, so I noticed risks that center more around Dixie get more pages pre-outbreak. Nothing wrong with that at all though, as everyone focuses more on things that affect their area.
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Yes, I’ve noticed a lot of talk about Alabama. I would love some insight on southern Indiana.
 
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