Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

[tennessee storm chaser]

What the thoughts on tonight’s 0z for
Next Wednesday. Have not dug I to it yet may before I go bed

 

[atrainguy]

I went from about 5 miles north of the marginal risk to about 5 miles inside the marginal risk, so there is that.

 

[Kds86z]

Day 2…holy Toledo that’s a big 10%

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Wow

 

[OhOkayThen]

SPC really used the highest possible end ENH for D1 and lowest possible ENH for D2 lol

(some may argue technically ENH can go higher TOR-wise, but 10% hatched is more dangerous than 15% non-hatched IMO)

 

[Kds86z]

SPC really used the highest possible end ENH for D1 and lowest possible ENH for D2 lol

(some may argue technically ENH can go higher TOR-wise, but 10% hatched is more dangerous than 15% non-hatched IMO)

The main word that comes to mind for today and tomorrow is “uncertainty “

 

[Kds86z]

SPC really used the highest possible end ENH for D1 and lowest possible ENH for D2 lol

(some may argue technically ENH can go higher TOR-wise, but 10% hatched is more dangerous than 15% non-hatched IMO)

I still feel like the wording of the D1 doesn’t match the hatched tornado but idk..

 

[US_Highway15]

Genuine question since I am still relatively an amateur and am trying to learn more. Which model do y’all prefer to look at in terms of consistency?

As time gets closer to the event, I tend to rely on the HRRR more than anything. Although I will still take a peak somewhat at the NAM, HRRR is definitely the go-to leading up. If we're talking longevity though, to start out for me it goes GFS, then when the NAM runs start to come in, I rely on the NAM and the NAMNST, and then comes in HRRR when those become available. If I had to label the "most consistent model" it would be HRRR.

I admittedly don't look at the RAP as much as I probably should, mostly because it's not the most "sexy" looking model on the planet compared to HRRR/NAM/NAMNST. Also I tend to favor the HRRR when it comes to rapid refresh models.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

As time gets closer to the event, I tend to rely on the HRRR more than anything. Although I will still take a peak somewhat at the NAM, HRRR is definitely the go-to leading up. If we're talking longevity though, to start out for me it goes GFS, then when the NAM runs start to come in, I rely on the NAM and the NAMNST, and then comes in HRRR when those become available. If I had to label the "most consistent model" it would be HRRR.

I admittedly don't look at the RAP as much as I probably should, mostly because it's not the most "sexy" looking model on the planet compared to HRRR/NAM/NAMNST. Also I tend to favor the HRRR when it comes to rapid refresh models.

Yeah seems like the rap gets overlooked a lot times

 

[US_Highway15]

Judging by the latest HRR run, if you're chasing and you wanna see tornadoes today, your best best is to hop on the cells eaely by the MO/AR border (money personally on south eastern MO), but these do become clustered up more quickly. Not surprised that SPC kept 10% hatched.

 

[wx_guy]

I think many need to stop and understand that ENH is still a pretty rough day! It doesn't have to be MDT or HIGH in order to be a damaging, deadly, and destructive day.

 

[OhOkayThen]

In a 7:45am CST update, SPC expands 10% hatched TOR and they upgraded wording a bit. ENH also gets expanded a little more SE further into Alabama.

 

[wx_guy]

I think many need to stop and understand that ENH is still a pretty rough day! It doesn't have to be MDT or HIGH in order to be a damaging, deadly, and destructive day.

Just to reiterate a bit, one storm that comes to mind immediately (since I lived in Auburn at the time) is the EF4 that killed 23 people in Lee County, AL in 2019. That was an ENH day, and it featured quite a few tornadoes.

 

[wx_guy]

12z HRRR has a nasty QLCS coming through, that will definitely have to be watched for a damaging wind threat and embedded tornadoes.

 

[JPWX]

And see here's what continues to be the kicker. There is NO line of storms until roughly 15z (10am) Monday and the QLCS that @wx_guy refers to doesn't start to form until 11z (6am) Monday over SW MS before continuing thru Central MS into South-Central AL.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

View attachment 37726View attachment 37727
Judging by the latest HRR run, if you're chasing and you wanna see tornadoes today, your best best is to hop on the cells eaely by the MO/AR border (money personally on south eastern MO), but these do become clustered up more quickly. Not surprised that SPC kept 10% hatched.

That's a absolute bonkers radar image. No moderate???

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

That's an absolute bonkers radar image. No moderate???

Now helicity tracks all over west tn latest. One large enhanced area today , next update short range keeps this up. . Got be a moderate area going up

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Now helicity tracks all over west tn latest

Yeah, that's a ridiculous stimulated radar presentation and updraft swaths for no moderate( even if not moderate tornado driven). Color me shocked. I would fully expect a special day 1 small moderate in West Tennessee/northeast Arkansas , southeast Missouri and portions of West Kentucky.

 

[ColdFront]

That's an absolute bonkers radar image. No moderate???

Probably due to how fast they’re congealing, which has to do with the deep shear vectors in relation to the initiating boundary. I’m actually a little surprised, the trough is broader based so you would expect relatively weaker forcing for storms to go up, unless the cap and EML is weaker or non-existent than what was showing up previously on the models.

 

[wx_guy]

And see here's what continues to be the kicker. There is NO line of storms until roughly 15z (10am) Monday and the QLCS that @wx_guy refers to doesn't start to form until 11z (6am) Monday over SW MS before continuing thru Central MS into South-Central AL.

Yeah, with the latest UH tracks, that QLCS is gonna be something to watch carefully for tornadoes. Monday may wind up being the star of this show.