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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

AJS said:
Genuine question since I am still relatively an amateur and am trying to learn more. Which model do y’all prefer to look at in terms of consistency?
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As time gets closer to the event, I tend to rely on the HRRR more than anything. Although I will still take a peak somewhat at the NAM, HRRR is definitely the go-to leading up. If we're talking longevity though, to start out for me it goes GFS, then when the NAM runs start to come in, I rely on the NAM and the NAMNST, and then comes in HRRR when those become available. If I had to label the "most consistent model" it would be HRRR.

I admittedly don't look at the RAP as much as I probably should, mostly because it's not the most "sexy" looking model on the planet compared to HRRR/NAM/NAMNST. Also I tend to favor the HRRR when it comes to rapid refresh models.
 
US_Highway15 said:
As time gets closer to the event, I tend to rely on the HRRR more than anything. Although I will still take a peak somewhat at the NAM, HRRR is definitely the go-to leading up. If we're talking longevity though, to start out for me it goes GFS, then when the NAM runs start to come in, I rely on the NAM and the NAMNST, and then comes in HRRR when those become available. If I had to label the "most consistent model" it would be HRRR.

I admittedly don't look at the RAP as much as I probably should, mostly because it's not the most "sexy" looking model on the planet compared to HRRR/NAM/NAMNST. Also I tend to favor the HRRR when it comes to rapid refresh models.
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Yeah seems like the rap gets overlooked a lot times
 
wx_guy said:
I think many need to stop and understand that ENH is still a pretty rough day! It doesn't have to be MDT or HIGH in order to be a damaging, deadly, and destructive day.
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Just to reiterate a bit, one storm that comes to mind immediately (since I lived in Auburn at the time) is the EF4 that killed 23 people in Lee County, AL in 2019. That was an ENH day, and it featured quite a few tornadoes.
 
And see here's what continues to be the kicker. There is NO line of storms until roughly 15z (10am) Monday and the QLCS that @wx_guy refers to doesn't start to form until 11z (6am) Monday over SW MS before continuing thru Central MS into South-Central AL.
 
US_Highway15 said:
View attachment 37726View attachment 37727
Judging by the latest HRR run, if you're chasing and you wanna see tornadoes today, your best best is to hop on the cells eaely by the MO/AR border (money personally on south eastern MO), but these do become clustered up more quickly. Not surprised that SPC kept 10% hatched.
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That's a absolute bonkers radar image. No moderate???
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Now helicity tracks all over west tn latest
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Yeah, that's a ridiculous stimulated radar presentation and updraft swaths for no moderate( even if not moderate tornado driven). Color me shocked. I would fully expect a special day 1 small moderate in West Tennessee/northeast Arkansas , southeast Missouri and portions of West Kentucky.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
That's an absolute bonkers radar image. No moderate???
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Probably due to how fast they’re congealing, which has to do with the deep shear vectors in relation to the initiating boundary. I’m actually a little surprised, the trough is broader based so you would expect relatively weaker forcing for storms to go up, unless the cap and EML is weaker or non-existent than what was showing up previously on the models.
 
JPWX said:
And see here's what continues to be the kicker. There is NO line of storms until roughly 15z (10am) Monday and the QLCS that @wx_guy refers to doesn't start to form until 11z (6am) Monday over SW MS before continuing thru Central MS into South-Central AL.
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Yeah, with the latest UH tracks, that QLCS is gonna be something to watch carefully for tornadoes. Monday may wind up being the star of this show.


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