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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

slenker said:
The warm sector that gets set up on the 0z Euro that extends to basically all of the beginning of April is super impressive, and highly worrisome if it comes to fruition, for obvious reasons. I don't think the GFS is nearly as potent as this.

For this upcoming threat:
View attachment 37174


And then, for 4/4 - 4/5 (Obviously will change, but goodness gracious):
View attachment 37175
Click to expand...
Just insane aerial coverage of that warm sector if it verified verbatim. Really what I was talking about on my post in the Severe weather 2025 thread and how zonal flow the last half of March has left the Gulf pristine and a nice, rich plume of moisture just setting there. It wouldn’t take much at all to advect that northward with it just sitting there untouched. You could stand on the coast down there and blow northward and it would push 60s dews up lol

That’s usually how you get those very wide eastern and northern warm sectors in April.
 
slenker said:
The warm sector that gets set up on the 0z Euro that extends to basically all of the beginning of April is super impressive, and highly worrisome if it comes to fruition, for obvious reasons. I don't think the GFS is nearly as potent as this.

And then, for 4/4 - 4/5 (Obviously will change, but goodness gracious):
View attachment 37175
Click to expand...
What in the actual……..
 
UpperLevelLOL said:
Sure, not calling it minor at all, but also (hopefully) we don't see the careless throwing around of historical days like the Super Outbreak or 4/27/11 like a couple weeks ago
Click to expand...
I 100% agree on this. I really think it’s nearly impossible to call a super outbreak before the event. It’s one of those things that you have to see unfolding live. It’s like what the Supreme Court said about pornography, you know it when you see it.
 
Forgive me but holy heck, that's impressive!
slenker said:
The warm sector that gets set up on the 0z Euro that extends to basically all of the beginning of April is super impressive, and highly worrisome if it comes to fruition, for obvious reasons. I don't think the GFS is nearly as potent as this.

For this upcoming threat:
View attachment 37174


And then, for 4/4 - 4/5 (Obviously will change, but goodness gracious):
View attachment 37175
Click to expand...
 
slenker said:
The warm sector that gets set up on the 0z Euro that extends to basically all of the beginning of April is super impressive, and highly worrisome if it comes to fruition, for obvious reasons. I don't think the GFS is nearly as potent as this.

For this upcoming threat:
View attachment 37174


And then, for 4/4 - 4/5 (Obviously will change, but goodness gracious):
View attachment 37175
Click to expand...
Yeah, this is going to be an incredibly active season. Everything is lining up it seems.
 
12z GFS would be a notable event in the Mid South on Sunday (3/30). Need to see more consistency on how this wave ejects though before I'm fully onboard. The 00z Euro was pretty unimpressive.

Moisture/instability look like a non issue with this though, which is always eyebrow-raising in early season.
 
Here is the approximate* STP from *yesterday's* data initialized at 06z, based on my own WRF-ARW model. I am running a new mode for today that has a bigger view and updated data from today. It'll use the 06Z GFS as initial conditions (it started before the 12z was out yet(,

1742837749241.png

* Approximate because the formula is really tricky to nail down exactly. Particularly MLCAPE and MLCIN have been tricky to get right, so for now, these are approximated.

EDIT: Also, the way I'm approximating it (to any weather nerds out there) is using the MUCAPE/MUCIN instead of the MLCAPE/MLCIN, so the STP is probably somewhat of an overestimate here. There probably isn't 12+ STP up in Ohio, but this gives you a general idea.
 
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