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Severe Threat 3/23-3/25

  • Thread starter Thread starter Xenesthis
  • Start date Start date
Day One Outlook covers the Corner of Arkansas where Wes is. Stay safe those who are in that area.

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Update for Tue Tornado threat. They do mention the earlier convection moving across TN, potentially laying the groundwork for supercells later in the afternoon. I HATE boundaries early in the day, that may impact afternoon events !!
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I'm just not sold on this one. High-res continues to show no support for this event even as we're approaching the evening. I know the NAM environment soundings look good, but there remains little to no evidence that there will be any storms to take advantage of this environment.

This output is not really a confidence booster. I've found that generally speaking, the HRRRE needs to be supporting an event for it to verify. It's not doing so this time.

The focus just isn't there. I'm calling Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency/marginally severe event until this changes.

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Looking at the HRRR it looks like there are storms moving thru during this peak STP period. First batch in the morning, followed by a late afternoon/evening batch during prime time.
 
SPC mentions that portions of middle Tennessee and north Alabama will be reevaluated later today for the possibility of an Enhanced Risk:

While exact later-day positioning of the warm front is a bit
uncertain, there is concern that a somewhat more focused/heightened
supercell and tornado potential could materialize across portions of
Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama in vicinity of the surface
triple point. Near the modestly deepening surface low/warm front,
low-level shear/SRH will be maximized with an enlargement of
hodographs expected toward sunset. Portions of Middle Tennessee and
northern Alabama will be reevaluated later today for the possibility
of a higher risk category (Enhanced).
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Warm front pushing through I 40 couple hours appears
Click to expand...
So the warm front is pushing through now... it’s raining fairly good right now. I guess this is laying down a boundary for later? I just don’t see this coming to fruition. I just don’t see enough destabilization later for the cellular development
 
Xenesthis said:
So the warm front is pushing through now... it’s raining fairly good right now. I guess this is laying down a boundary for later? I just don’t see this coming to fruition. I just don’t see enough destabilization later for the cellular development
Click to expand...

Latest hrr has nice cells Memphis area around 4 clock. Things could get interesting if we can destabilize some more
 
Pretty cold temperatures aloft will likely make up for the modest surface heating. Further south will not be a problem regarding surface destabilization, but it will begin to lose directional shear in the low levels. I think North AL will have a conditional threat depending on how long we can keep surface winds from veering.
 
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