The NAM is more aggressive than other guidance. The 500mb pattern on the 12z that’s running now doesn’t look far off from 3/19/2018 (the Jacksonville tornado day and the incredible hail event across Alabama).
Low level winds are still a bit too veered on the NAM for my liking (although there may be a small corridor closer to the surface low up in KY that might have a bit more backing) . That was a fly in the ointment for the last system across the Ohio Valley and stunted the tornado threat.
Most obvious place for a threat of supercells Tuesday would be the pre-frontal trough pushing through south-central KY, middle TN, and N AL in the afternoon. Ahead of this wind shift, surface winds may be more southerly with large hodographs due to a strong WSW/SW LLJ. The big question is how large of a region to the west of the wedge (CAD) front will destabilize in order to take advantage of this high shear zone.
It’s another threat that somewhat reminds me of 3/3 with the strong westerly mid level flow and cold temps aloft, but as we saw with the previous event that generally busted, these things can be fickle.
Not impressed by this setup as of right now if I'm being honest here. It's a higher end environment yes, but we are SERIOUSLY lacking a focal mechanism for robust, deep convection to fire and the high resolution models are not supportive of deeper convection to get going.
I think this may be a classic case of a high end environment being in place, but storms are not able to develop strong enough updrafts to actually take advantage of the parameters. It'll be a wet, rainy, nasty day, but as of right now I wouldn't shocked if severe reports across the area are minimal to perhaps non existent. Maybe a couple isolated wind and small hail reports right now unless this changes.