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Severe Threat 3/23-3/25 (1 Viewer)


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Xenesthis

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I figured I would get this one going...
 

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Kory

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4,738
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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Euro mixes the dews our across the warm sector in addition to veering low level winds quite early. This looks like a hail/damaging wind threat at first glance.
 
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Xenesthis

Guest
Well just for fun this is the 18z run on Tuesday for my location. 57D54326-E4E7-474A-A3F3-F1CCCE77AC0F.jpeg Not impressed really.
 
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Xenesthis

Guest
So is this thing contaminated or what am I missing...This is off the NAM right near me late Tuesday 21z
 

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Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
The NAM is more aggressive than other guidance. The 500mb pattern on the 12z that’s running now doesn’t look far off from 3/19/2018 (the Jacksonville tornado day and the incredible hail event across Alabama).
 
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Kory

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4,738
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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Low level winds are still a bit too veered on the NAM for my liking (although there may be a small corridor closer to the surface low up in KY that might have a bit more backing) . That was a fly in the ointment for the last system across the Ohio Valley and stunted the tornado threat.
 
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Xenesthis

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Newest run....12z
 

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Xenesthis

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Newest 12z GFS
 

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andyhb

Member
Messages
190
Location
Norman, OK
Most obvious place for a threat of supercells Tuesday would be the pre-frontal trough pushing through south-central KY, middle TN, and N AL in the afternoon. Ahead of this wind shift, surface winds may be more southerly with large hodographs due to a strong WSW/SW LLJ. The big question is how large of a region to the west of the wedge (CAD) front will destabilize in order to take advantage of this high shear zone.

It’s another threat that somewhat reminds me of 3/3 with the strong westerly mid level flow and cold temps aloft, but as we saw with the previous event that generally busted, these things can be fickle.
 

Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Central TN into Southern KY looks like the bullseye yet again. Further south, I wonder if there will be enough convergence along the boundary to get a focus for convection to fire...
 
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Xenesthis

Guest
Central TN into Southern KY looks like the bullseye yet again. Further south, I wonder if there will be enough convergence along the boundary to get a focus for convection to fire...

Does this still look like a higher hail threat to you vs a tornado threat?
 

rolltide_130

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Messages
813
Location
Harvest, Alabama
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Not impressed by this setup as of right now if I'm being honest here. It's a higher end environment yes, but we are SERIOUSLY lacking a focal mechanism for robust, deep convection to fire and the high resolution models are not supportive of deeper convection to get going.

I think this may be a classic case of a high end environment being in place, but storms are not able to develop strong enough updrafts to actually take advantage of the parameters. It'll be a wet, rainy, nasty day, but as of right now I wouldn't shocked if severe reports across the area are minimal to perhaps non existent. Maybe a couple isolated wind and small hail reports right now unless this changes.
 
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