MattPetrulli
Member
Day 2 ENH with 10% tor risk across West TN and day 3 slight across VA/NC
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Severe WX Severe Threat 27-28 March 2021
- Thread starter MattPetrulli
- Start date
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- severe wx
WhirlingWx
Member
Unsurprisingly, the HRRR is the most aggressive of the CAMs for tomorrow wrt firing off discrete cells, but overall, the environment ain't too shabby (while obviously not in the same ballpark as yesterday's environment). Hoping this doesn't sneak up on people given how focus everyone has/had been on yesterday's threat.
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When you guys look at this going forward, keep in mind the fact that when your mid/upper winds are as veered WSW or W as this situation will be, it's a good deal easier to get away with SSW sfc winds to have a few tornadoes. Dixie Alley into the Ohio Valley has way more tornado days with SSW sfc winds than a lot of people realize. I don't think this is in the same league as anything we've seen the past 14 days, but I highly doubt we get by this without tornado warnings and maybe some damage in a few spots. This is just a year when, even when the overall scope of an event may underperform on the whole, individual storms within that overperform. This year is different, and that has been proven multiple times now, going back to Fultondale... and it speaks a lot to the environmental background conditions in place that we've talked about on this forum for the past several months.
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- #4
MattPetrulli
Member
Day 2 has gone hatched
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND TORNADOES. POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
TORNADO EXISTS FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE. OTHER
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE MIDWEST WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
..SYNOPSIS
AT UPPER LEVELS, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE
FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE LATE IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST
WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD BEFORE SLOWING/STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND WISCONSIN AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..LOWER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TENNESSEE VALLEYS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINT CURRENTLY
ALONG THE GULF COAST, IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT MID TO UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM
FRONT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY WILL BE. EVEN SO, SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE BY THE
AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AT 50-65 KTS. ORGANIZED
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES AND LARGER HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE SLOWING WARM FRONT WHERE MORE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. LATER IN THE EVENING, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT,
THOUGH QLCS CIRCULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN ADEQUATE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND TORNADOES. POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
TORNADO EXISTS FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE. OTHER
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE MIDWEST WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
..SYNOPSIS
AT UPPER LEVELS, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE
FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE LATE IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST
WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD BEFORE SLOWING/STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND WISCONSIN AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..LOWER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TENNESSEE VALLEYS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINT CURRENTLY
ALONG THE GULF COAST, IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT MID TO UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM
FRONT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY WILL BE. EVEN SO, SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE BY THE
AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AT 50-65 KTS. ORGANIZED
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES AND LARGER HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE SLOWING WARM FRONT WHERE MORE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. LATER IN THE EVENING, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT,
THOUGH QLCS CIRCULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN ADEQUATE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.
WhirlingWx
Member
You just beat me to it, haha
FEARLESS
Member
Here we go again. Yesterday in chattanooga we had minimal damage but alot of flooding.
WhirlingWx
Member
New D1 expands the enhanced risk and includes all sig severe hazards at enhanced risk level themselves.
Equus
Member
Decent odds on SREF, could be a surprise or two
Timhsv
Member
I think your dead on Fred. Case in point, last nights Newman, Ga. EF4. If I'm not badly mistaken, it was just in a SLIGHT RSK area, thou MCD 0268 covered the risk at that time.
Liberty4dayz
Member
Wow... Woke up to some decent hail up here in the mountains outside Chattanooga. The big show isn't until later .
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Sent from my SM-G955U1 using Tapatalk
weir003
Member
Staying at relatives in Kossuth Ms. I woke up to intense lighting and pea sized hail!
tennessee storm chaser
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well reed trimmer is here around jackson tn area setting up along i40 for later this evening, see what happens... keeping eye back sw of me for discrete super cells later
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Tornado Watch coming soon across southern Tennessee and northern Mississippi and Alabama
CheeselandSkies
Member
Haven't really looked too closely at this setup yet...was kind of surprised to pull up the SPC site with the national radar loop on the homepage and see a lack of widespread precipitation over most of the Enhanced Risk area (except middle Tennessee). What are the expected limiting factors that this is not a higher category already?
Storm mode amongst others. Storm motion today favors a long residence time near the boundary which may yield upscale growth (but is also favorable for stronger low level SRH).
WhirlingWx
Member
80/60 TOR probabilities on this watch, with high wind probabilities and moderate-high hail probabilities as well.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 59
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Extreme northern Alabama
Extreme east central Arkansas
Northern Mississippi
Southern parts of western and middle Tennessee
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Severe storm development is expected by mid afternoon and
storms will persist well into this evening. The storm environment
favors supercells capable of producing a couple of strong tornadoes
and very large hail near the size of baseballs. As storms cluster
more into the evening, the threat for damaging winds will increase,
including the potential for hurricane force gusts.
Storm initiation is taking place in an area that could threaten Memphis.
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No one is paying attention today. Watch this be the day the Huntsville area gets a scare after the last 2 systems didn't produce anything here.
BWER47
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Mike,
Bite your tongue! But it does feel more like a severe day. Temp 80 dewpoint just hit 70. Winds out of SSW gusting at times. Don't know what the upper levels are doing. When things start to ramp up, it could be quick.
Bite your tongue! But it does feel more like a severe day. Temp 80 dewpoint just hit 70. Winds out of SSW gusting at times. Don't know what the upper levels are doing. When things start to ramp up, it could be quick.
