I think the rating for the Rozel, KS 2013 tornado was over lenient. Not even the contextual evidence could convince me of a rating higher than low-end EF3. However, their experts so who am I to question them.
If we apply the 10000% totally accurate method of predicting the most severe reports being southeast of the SPC's bullseye, MS and north AL will get their turn tomorrow /s
What I notcie for yesterday in MS was that CAMs really downtrended the sfc low and LLJ in entire MS a lot after 6z, especially after 12z. So with very impressive CAPE but relatively weak dynamic condition, it was no surprising that MS performed below expectation yesterday. That to tell us need to watch CAMs really closely at short term not just oberservation sounding in the morning.
Yes, the structure damage of Rozel was just EF2 level.
Definitely agree about the sfc low intensity, people who are much smarter than me were the first to point it out, but by mid-afternoon, seeing the surface low pretty weak and disorganized when we were initially expecting it to go ~995 mb or lower was kind of a sign to me that things weren't really going exactly as planned. Pretty sure the Euro got it down to like 982 mb for a run that was like only a couple days prior to the event. Obviously, central AL was doing its thing by the afternoon but for the areas with "higher" risk, the wind fields just got a little junky for a while. Even when the wind fields recovered a bit later on, the cap was pretty stout in MS and still kept things quieter there.
I second this. @CheeselandSkies was the one who said it, I believe.
Yes! I remember they actually retained the EF4 rating by claiming that a house which sustained partial roof and wall loss sustained “low-end EF4” damage. It was clear to me that they just used that house as a damage point to apply an utterly absurd EF4 rating to, so that higher ups couldn’t force them to downgrade, since they initially assigned the EF4 rating based on mobile radar wind speed measurements. If they have a structure damage basis for the rating, they don’t have to downgrade.
What did the NWS have to gain from keeping the rating at EF4 though? Clearly Rozel definitely didn't warrant an EF4 rating though why would they insist on keeping that rating?
That is what I would like to know as the house level damage was no more than a high-end EF2. I said low-end EF3 based on some contextual damage and I feel like that would be pretty lenient as well.
Vilonia was also pure bs as well.
Memphis also included. There has not been a single tornado warning in a moderate and high risk last 2 weeks.
I have a feeling that LZK received some fat checks from Arkansas politicians to keep the rating at EF4.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_May_18–21,_2013#/media/File:May_18,_2013_Rozel,_Kansas_tornado_damage.jpg
Yeah that structural damage is nowhere near worthy of an EF4 rating. I suppose the propane tank being thrown .25 miles and is fairly impressive though nothing an EF3 couldn't cause? I also read that the tornado scoured a dirt road though some EF3's have produced ground scouring. Definitely not EF4 worthy though.
