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Severe WX Severe Threat 25 March 2021

Can't help but wonder if the cloud cover we have right now is going to keep this from realizing its full potential like it did last week. I remember that when the analog for today happened it was already bright and sunny by now but we still seem to have a pretty decent amount of cloud cover just outside of Bham.
 
Equus said:
In the simplest of terms, the clockwise curve indicates a favorable wind profile, and the SRH is an important parameter for levels of shear; 250 0-1km and 350 0-3km would be enough for significant tornadoes but at the moment from the Birmingham radar site we had 870 and 1033 respectively
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Thanks, I know enough to be concerned. But not enough to understand completely.

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TornadoFan said:
Wow
View attachment 7506
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Equus said:
In the simplest of terms, the clockwise curve indicates a favorable wind profile, and the SRH is an important parameter for levels of shear; 250 0-1km and 350 0-3km would be enough for significant tornadoes but at the moment from the Birmingham radar site we had 870 and 1033 respectively
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870 m2/s2 and 1033 m2/s2!! That is absolutely insane.
 
darkskys25 said:
this is the 1st time i have seen the hrrr drop significant uh tracks in Tuscaloosa and Jefferson and Central AL in general. This suggests that perhaps the long tracked tornadoes may not be contained within the high risk area if this trend continues. Something worth watching.
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The runs are indeed dropping some stuff further south with time. Will definitely need to keep keen eyes on that trend.
 
The thing is, if it busts ( in your opinion ), then post that after the fact, not before.
Some people reading this forum know very little about weather, and if some people start posting "I think it may Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" they might believe it, and instead of getting out of that mobile home and going somewhere safer, they stay put and get hit later.
 
The clouds are starting to lighten up here.
 
AL_ham_op said:
Can't help but wonder if the cloud cover we have right now is going to keep this from realizing its full potential like it did last week. I remember that when the analog for today happened it was already bright and sunny by now but we still seem to have a pretty decent amount of cloud cover just outside of Bham.
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You don't need strong insolation/daytime heating when you have strong WAA/moisture advection. Of course there's already plenty of clearing behind this morning line in Mississippi, so it's entirely possible that there will be at least some insolation in Alabama too.
 
keithGA said:
Well said. What is frustrating to me is the amount of people going about their daily lives in Dixie that are oblivious to the threat today because they don't watch local news or follow anything weather related on social media. Their crap app on their cell phone probably just says thunderstorms today. These will be the people who say "it came without warning" when a tornado affects them.
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That is one of the things I am talking about! I always hear Derek Kinkade, a local MET here, INCESSANTLY say to have multiple ways to have warnings. Each method has its own "fail mode" so the more the merrier. Derek can say this all day, but people dont listen.
 
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