Severe WX Severe Threat 25 March 2021

[Equus]

I honestly expect a 45% at 1630z unless something changes and an expansion of the high, things certainly look pretty dire. Meanwhile the yard is flooded and I assume the basement is too, very vigorous storms already this morning.

 

[Jacob]

Last run of CIPS before go time and the top analog is definitely not what you wanna see.

Long day/night ahead.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Anybody have a link/image by chance?

 

[sak]

What was the analog?

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

What was the analog?

4/27/2011

 

[Weatherphreak]

I think once this axis of storms over Eastern Mississippi moves through I think you'll start to see things pop around noon - 1pm

 

[The Nino]

4/27/2011

that's just unreal

 

[TornadoFan]

Quite a bit of clearing over MS now.

 

[Tanner]

Quite a bit of clearing over MS now.
View attachment 7499

Yup. Reed Timmer stated in his live update that there were breaks in the clouds starting, in Columbus MS that is. This is not looking particularly good.

 

[sak]

is there any chance this action getting started in Mississippi right now is the main event? i tend to think no, but last week this happened and the storms behind the initial batch never got going.

granted it is only 9am, not 2pm like last week.

 

[warneagle]

is there any chance this action getting started in Mississippi right now is the main event? i tend to think no, but last week this happened and the storms behind the initial batch never got going.

granted it is only 9am, not 2pm like last week.

No, we're still a couple of hours away from the main event storms firing.

 

[Richardjacks]

is there any chance this action getting started in Mississippi right now is the main event? i tend to think no, but last week this happened and the storms behind the initial batch never got going.

granted it is only 9am, not 2pm like last week.

I think what will happen is that long band of showers/confluence zone will start to lift north and weaken...opening the warm sector for the afternoon.

 

[Richardjacks]

MD coming

 

[jaymackd3]

peeks of sun in SE Huntsville

 

[warneagle]

Looks like that MD is for the current elevated convection along the warm front rather than the main event.

 

[Richardjacks]

Looks like that MD is for the current elevated convection along the warm front rather than the main event.

correct...it mentions watch needed later today

 

[Equus]

Lots of clearing. Very very bad.

 

[Richardjacks]

that clearing in central miss makes me wonder if we may see a south/east expansion on high risk...focus of initiation could wind up being a bit further south

 

[TornadoFan]

Flooding in Cullman

 

[Equus]

BMX VWP... I assume still associated with warm front but uh

 

[Chris3024]

Flooding in Cullman

yeah, those morning storms dumped a ton of rain on us here in Cullman