TuscWeathergrl
Member
Definitely go to basement. We are in Tuscaloosa too and already have our storm shelter bag packed.I took the symbol out. Always have a plan. If that is your safe place in Tuscaloosa, I would definitely have it ready.
Definitely go to basement. We are in Tuscaloosa too and already have our storm shelter bag packed.I took the symbol out. Always have a plan. If that is your safe place in Tuscaloosa, I would definitely have it ready.
Umm no thank you~ This is really starting to firm up as a big event. Going to start talking to friends and family tonight. Too many were surprised last week.
uhhhhh...no please
uhhhhh...no please
I know it’s just a model but a lot of famous tracks on that map. The Cullman, Marshall streak has been on every run I’ve seen. Hadn’t seen the Guin>Huntsville track till this one.
uhhhhh...no please
my thoughts also. Pretty remarkable how those classic tracks show up on modeling (I am thinking of past events as well)I know it’s just a model but a lot of famous tracks on that map. The Cullman, Marshall streak has been on every run I’ve seen. Hadn’t seen the Guin>Huntsville track till this one.
Long time lurker here but had to create an account to say the same thing. The Lauderdale/Wayne/Lawrence track is a historical track as well.my thoughts also. Pretty remarkable how those classic tracks show up on modeling (I am thinking of past events as well)
View attachment 7409
That is an incredibly large region of ≥5 STP from the 15z SREF. For reference, the black contour is the mean, while the color shading represents probabilities of the STP reaching or exceeding that value.
Yeah they max out at 8. The last time I saw anything like that there was... well I probably don't need to say it.Here is your mean STP value. An area that large of 8 with nothing higher also tells me that they don't contour above 8 on there...
Fred, I see what your saying...supercells maturing and controlling the surrounding environment, a very scary thought.There are a couple of red flag type things that are starting to stand out to me while hyper-analyzing everything....
1. When you look at the 12-18z timeframe over north AL, as the more steady rain is shifting north through TN, the sfc winds are not disrupted by the ongoing cellular showers or storms. Low-level winds keep flowing right through. That tells me there is no cold pool reinforcement and that warm air/moisture advection is not interrupted.
2. Watch the HRRR as the supercells start in the afternoon and then mature. Think back to last week. Last week, the evolution was that a few clean supercells developed, and then storms immediately started forming everywhere and getting more and more widespread and more and more messy. However, with this system, it is the 180 degree polar opposite. As the supercells develop and mature in the environment, the weaker updrafts get weeded out and the projected radar screen gets cleaner and cleaner with time. This is a testament to the difference in the forcing/height falls/large scale ascent and the nature of the EML between the two events. In this event, what you have modeled is the geometry/nature of the large scale ascent, the EML, and the supercells themselves all working in tandem to weed out the smaller and weaker updrafts.
There are a couple of red flag type things that are starting to stand out to me while hyper-analyzing everything....
... As the supercells develop and mature in the environment, the weaker updrafts get weeded out and the projected radar screen gets cleaner and cleaner with time...