Severe WX Severe Threat 25 March 2021

[Matthew70]

Snapshot valid for 23Z tonight:

That’s just nasty especially for my area in TN

 

[speedbump305]

I honestly have a feeling that they will upgrade to a 45 percent risk. I just know they will

 

[Richardjacks]

Got to watch this zone of confulence over next several hours...may be the initiating point of cells in east Miss

 

[Jpgood97]

Unless the convection back builds, wouldn’t all of the stuff on radar be gone way before 1/2pm? Allowing for plenty of destabilization

 

[sak]

Unless the convection back builds, wouldn’t all of the stuff on radar be gone way before 1/2pm? Allowing for plenty of destabilization

most of the high res models seem to redevelop at least some convection

 

[sak]

Got to watch this zone of confulence over next several hours...may be the initiating point of cells inView attachment 7483 east Miss

what do the dynamics look like right now in western AL? any chance of tornadoes from those over the next 2-3 hours?

 

[ChaninCullman]

Got to watch this zone of confulence over next several hours...may be the initiating point of cells inView attachment 7483 east Miss

Fox 6 mentions if the winds stay strong it could help destabilize????

 

[BCF]

10z HRRR looks insane. Already by 20z it has a couple strong supercells.

 

[Kory]

Already have 400-500 effective SRH down in southern MS. No wonder these storms are exemplifying supercellular structures already.

 

[Equus]

Near 40kft tops there on the state line, very robust for 7am... shades of what's to come, probably

 

[Richardjacks]

Sigtor is building

 

[Richardjacks]

View attachment 7484
Sigtor is building

notice how there is no convection down there right now

 

[MattW]

What's the difference between that SigTor and what I see in GREarth? GREarth shows the STP being centered through southern Mississippi rather than Louisiana.

 

[The Nino]

what are some of the nowcast things to watch for today as far as hindering this system's capability? Obviously junk convection is one but is there a potential cap or anything like that to overcome today?

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

Look at that EML at LIX.

 

[Richardjacks]

HRRR is trending later with supercells, probably clearing ahead of them.

 

[Richardjacks]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

View attachment 7490

*Gulp*

 

[Richardjacks]

Since the table is set, can I just ahead
and have my check? I will leave a nice tip, thanks very much, need to go.

 

[Mr. Clark]

This looks familiar...