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Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

Snowyfbaby said:
Ok reset someone give me the latest information and let’s look at the current situation as it plays out now with models and forecasting. Also compare this event to others could this be another April 27th?
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Highly unlikely, and the same is true for nearly every event you'll see. It's been brought up a couple of times before in this and other threads, just how much of an anomaly April 27th was even as violent tornado outbreaks go.
 
Casuarina Head said:
So do you think that the potential is still there for this event to surpass 04/28/2014 in terms of EF4+ tornadoes?

I was looking at the number of high-end UH tracks indicating large, robust circulations. The more of these, the more favourable the environment.

Certainly, resolution is a big problem, so smaller circulations could still be violent, but the number of big ones says something about conditions.

I’m certainly not downplaying the potential of this event, by any stretch, especially given the overnight timing, which could prove deadly.
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This was posted earlier regarding UH tracks, I found it very interesting and educational.

 
Casuarina Head said:
So do you think that the potential is still there for this event to surpass 04/28/2014 in terms of EF4+ tornadoes?

I was looking at the number of high-end UH tracks indicating large, robust circulations. The more of these, the more favourable the environment.

Certainly, resolution is a big problem, so smaller circulations could still be violent, but the number of big ones says something about conditions.

I’m certainly not downplaying the potential of this event, by any stretch, especially given the overnight timing, which could prove deadly.
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I think it's not possible nor fruitful to make a call about the number of tornadoes of a given strength on either the bullish or bearish side 30-36+ hours out.
 
Snowyfbaby said:
Ok reset someone give me the latest information and let’s look at the current situation as it plays out now with models and forecasting. Also compare this event to others could this be another April 27th?
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No, April 27th was an exceptional, once-in-a-generation type of event. It's not useful to compare upcoming events to outliers like that because there's a huge range of outcomes between "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" and "April 27th" that most threats fall into. As Beauregard and Cookeville have shown in the last couple of years, it doesn't take a widespread, record-shattering outbreak; one strong tornado in the wrong place can kill a lot of people. It's clear from the large-scale pattern that the parameters for tomorrow will support strong tornadoes, but the exact magnitude of that threat and locations affected are determined by small-scale features that we can't predict precisely this far out.
 
warneagle said:
No, April 27th was an exceptional, once-in-a-generation type of event. It's not useful to compare upcoming events to outliers like that because there's a huge range of outcomes between "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" and "April 27th" that most threats fall into. As Beauregard and Cookeville have shown in the last couple of years, it doesn't take a widespread, record-shattering outbreak; one strong tornado in the wrong place can kill a lot of people. It's clear from the large-scale pattern that the parameters for tomorrow will support strong tornadoes, but the exact magnitude of that threat and locations affected are determined by small-scale features that we can't predict precisely this far out.
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I seen stp hit 3.5 and on April 27th In my area it was a 12.
 
Snowyfbaby said:
You are wrong and I would expect to have an ef5.
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It's simply not reasonable to try to guesstimate whether or not we'll definitely have EF4+ tornadoes or definitely not have them. The *potential* is there for violent tornadoes in a large chunk of the moderate risk tomorrow. Anyone preaching certainty or making specific predictions is either naive or hasn't had their pride brought back down to earth by mother nature yet.

Back to Wednesday's forecast. Globals definitely not agreeing with the NAM on the strength of the wedge nor a further SW intrusion. The NAM is on an island in that regard. Nothing new. I probably tend to lean a little more toward the globals here and I won't be shocked to see the NAM suddenly cave.
 
Second D2 outlook should be out in around an hour, curious to see if they'll make any changes.
 
andyhb said:
12z NAM has a weaker LLJ by 00z than previously. With that said, the backed surface flow it shows in MS will yield tornadoes with any supercells there.
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I was just perusing that run myself, and it looks to me like the forecast wind profiles have improved a little bit from the run or two before that. Less veer-backing. It's up for debate how meaningful that actually is, but some of the hodos I was seeing were a little funky, now more of them have closer to that classic sickle shape again (mostly clicking on points within the higher 1KM EHI zones across MS).
 
Joechampion said:
Question. With this weather coming into Alabama I have a safety question. Is it safer to stay in a brick home or go to a community storm shelter? Thanks in advance! I have followed this site for a long time but this is my first post.
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Personally I always go to a shelter on days like tomorrow if a warning is triggered. I have a brick home too but prefer not to risk it on days where strong tornadoes are even mentioned. I grew up in Tuscaloosa and have witnessed first hand the damage a strong tornado can cause to even well built structures.
 
TuscWeathergrl said:
Personally I always go to a shelter on days like tomorrow if a warning is triggered. I have a brick home too but prefer not to risk it on days where strong tornadoes are even mentioned. I grew up in Tuscaloosa and have witnessed first hand the damage a strong tornado can cause to even well built structures.
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Thats always good, especially when you went through a historic tornado, glad you can be here
 
Brice Wood said:
Thats always good, especially when you went through a historic tornado, glad you can be here
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I was lucky and didn’t get hit by any of the major tornadoes (knock on wood) but came very close to the April 27th tornado. My brother actually worked on 15th street which was ground zero and booked it to the shelter in the mall. Where he worked was leveled. He still has some ptsd from coming that close to potentially losing his life.
 
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