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Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

keithGA said:
Wedge seems to be holding on a bit longer this run of the HRRR.
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Was about to mention the HRRR shows the wedge holding stronger (similar to 3km NAM) than in previous runs.
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The very lowest part of the color scale on there starts at 75 m2/s2, which is midway through the blue on pivotalweather.com's scale. After watching how this model has worked for multiple events over the past year or so, knowing the background forcing geometry, the parameter space, the convective evolution, and putting that altogether... anything that hits bright yellow or higher here is a substantial concern for EF2-EF3+ potential. The solid bright true yellow there starts at 125 m2/s2, I just pixel queried it. For reference, that is mid-way through the yellow-to-orange gradient portion of pivotal's color palette.
 
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Question. With this weather coming into Alabama I have a safety question. Is it safer to stay in a brick home or go to a community storm shelter? Thanks in advance! I have followed this site for a long time but this is my first post.
 
warneagle said:
I was wondering when you'd pop in. I was getting ready to light up the bat signal!

And yeah, I'm already prepared for somebody to come in and say this is a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency when it's still quiet in MS/AL at 3 pm tomorrow.
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I'd love to be able to come by at 3AM Thursday morning and say "busy" and everyone agrees. That would make my month. I think the probability of that occurring, however, has dwindled substantially.

Kory already alluded to this, but there are still some factors left to resolve. The issue, unfortunately, is thus far each little piece being resolved has almost exclusively been supportive of enhancing the threat rather than being a hindrance.

Doesn't mean there's not any potential flies in the ointment left, but from experience I can say when the trend keeps resolving in one direction as time ticks away the potential list of outcomes narrows sharply and the forecast becomes increasingly clear. In this case, it's hard to argue against an outbreak at this point.

Nonetheless, I will say it's always a good idea for us to constructively engage dissenting views that are legitimate and not just based off of gut feel. I've seen more than one Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency where the hive mind of a weather forum didn't want to listen to 1-2 naysayers who had well-supported dissents from the concensus view. I've also seen a handful of people troll like crazy and scream Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency from minute one. I mention the above because emotions always run high when we face such a potentially high-end event.
 
Bama Ravens said:
Interesting that it doesn’t look like supercells really get going in west Alabama until after 7pm. Not saying that lessens the threat at all.
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At least for the ones with the high-end tornado potential, that's been the main expectation all along, with maybe a couple in the late afternoon as a conditional threat.
 
As always, Dixie likes its nocturnal beasts; at least with daytime events people are awake/aware, and sometimes we even get decent video out of an otherwise tragic situation, but nighttime events are all deathtraps and downsides.
 
Joechampion said:
Question. With this weather coming into Alabama I have a safety question. Is it safer to stay in a brick home or go to a community storm shelter? Thanks in advance! I have followed this site for a long time but this is my first post.
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I have a solid brick home, but tomorrow, if a warning looks to be heading our way, we're going to the community shelter (practically across the street from our home). It's rated for EF-5...my home is not.
 
12z HRRR run

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It’s disappointing how uninformed some are. The Fire Department of a city near me just made a post on their Facebook page about the weather for today/tomorrow, but in the post they shared outdated convective outlooks that were made yesterday. I appreciate that they’re trying to get the word out, but sharing outdated info creates confusion.
 
Bama Ravens said:
It’s disappointing how uninformed some are. The Fire Department of a city near me just made a post on their Facebook page about the weather for today/tomorrow, but in the post they shared outdated convective outlooks that were made yesterday. I appreciate that they’re trying to get the word out, but sharing outdated info creates confusion.
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I agree. I have this website i use thats called severeweatheroutlook.com it has its accurate forecasts and updates if anything changes. it doesn’t require social media and it’s way easier! hope it helps!
 
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