Hurricane Melissa

[wx_guy]

What's going on with Mission 23? They aren't heading into the storm?

 

[kcyalater]

there really aren’t any words. this is terrifying and absolutely stunning at the same time.

 

[bjdeming]

Aso very worried about people in Haiti, as while Jamaica is taking the brunt of this, they at least have an actual government to spearhead recovery.

It doesn't sound too good, per at least one Haiti correspondent at Storm Carib.

And I hope the Jamaican correspondent at 3500 feet is right about the protection of those 4000-foot mountains.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Dont be shocked if we see 880s next pass through the eye.

This is, and possibly will be, the worst hurricane I have and possibly will ever track for a long time. This is a once in a generation event.

I'm afraid this is just the beginning in terms of historic hurricanes. The ocean certainly isn't getting any colder and we've been shattering SST records for years. This type of storm is very likely the new normal.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

It’s possible recon is done. Looks like 2nd plane circling northwest of the island. Maybe one more pass from first plane. Thankful we got a historical record on that first pass.

 

[sak]

On Ryan Hall”s stream I saw people out walking in Kingston as Melissa is about to make landfall.

the wind in kingston won’t be that bad. not saying i’d advise walking around, but there’s a pretty good chance winds stay below hurricane force there.

 

[tornado examiner]

The video from these pass’s are going to be the single best videos ever taken inside a hurricane. If they were recording footage.

 

[Smokedevil]

I would imagine gusts are probably in the 220 mph range. They are basically having a giant EF 5 tornado that's barely moving. Even well built structures will fail.

 

[wx_guy]

Looks like Mission 23 is headed in after all...

 

[sak]

The loss of life is going to be tremendous. If it's below 1,000 I'll be shocked.
In fact, I'd be shocked if it was below 1,000 if it was about to hit the u.s.
I've worked numerous aftermaths of tornadoes and hurricanes. This will potentially be as bad as I've seen. And that includes Katrina that I worked.

really it just depends on the exact path of the eye and where there are mudslides.

the catastrophic winds will hit a pretty small part of the island.

sad that quite a few people probably will die when they could have just gotten over to kingston yesterday and ridden it out.

 

[Smokedevil]

really it just depends on the exact path of the eye and where there are mudslides.

the catastrophic winds will hit a pretty small part of the island.

sad that quite a few people probably will die when they could have just gotten over to kingston yesterday and ridden it out.

I know. It makes ZERO sense to me when you know days ahead of time what's coming, but stay anyway, or decide to leave as it hits, then call 911 and expect to be rescued. Not that they have our version of 911, but you know what I mean.

 

[wx_guy]

I know. It makes ZERO sense to me when you know days ahead of time what's coming, but stay anyway, or decide to leave as it hits.

Life is complicated. Some people are just foolish. But others, it's a much more complex calculus that has to take place, and unfortunately, for some, there's no choice but to stay and hope for the best.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

There are only two Category 5 hurricanes in the modern historical record to make landfall on a mountainous location:

- David which hit Hispaniola in 1979
- Maria which hit Dominica in 2017

Neither was anywhere close to as intense as Melissa, but closest comparison I can find to this event.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

I’m confident data supports 892mb, tying Labor Day 1935. Likely will be ~890 mb or below by landfall. Incredible deepening after this mornings eye wall merger.

 

[Atlantic]

First Eye pass from NOAA mission 23 coming in here in a few minutes


And a loop of this incredible monster

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[wx_guy]

Recon Mission 23 about to punch the eye.

 

[wx_guy]

Looks like with recon we will get 1-2 more good passes through the eye (including a NE quadrant pass if Mission 24 does what it looks like it's doing) before landfall.

 

[tornado examiner]

No real drop measured on the latest pass. Lowest still 893mb.

 

[Smokedevil]

Another thing, she's had plenty of time to build up a huge surge.