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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Melissa

Hurricane Melissa

slenker said:
It's been at least 24 hours now of official category 5 intensity, but honestly I think it was cat 5 well before it was officially upgraded. The fact that this thing has either sustained its extreme intensity or kept getting stronger is a testament to the ferocity of this storm. It just goes against how storms work in general - how is it possible for no EWRCs to occur at all?
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I have a theory on that. Scroll back.
 
slenker said:
I can guarantee you that there won't be any EF5, probably not even any EF4 level structural damage from this storm. Hurricanes simply do not do what tornadoes do when it comes to wind damage. The flooding and surge, on the other hand, is the far bigger issue.
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Tell that to Andrew.
 
Blountwolf said:
I have a theory on that. Scroll back.
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I saw that and I was just still thinking out loud. It sounds absolutely plausible to me.
Smokedevil said:
The slow movement tho? Thats hours of cat 5 winds.
I'm not disagreeing, just generally curious.
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Tornadic wind fields are far more complicated, erratic, and there's more to the damage than just the windspeeds i.e. vertical component and a far more sudden pressure adjustment, due to the sledgehammer effect among others, that likely contribute to a far higher damage ceiling when it comes to pure winds. Hurricanes' winds, even in the most violent part of the eyewall and during the most powerful gusts, are still more diffuse and don't have a vertical component to them. I can't say this with certainty, I'm not a meteorologist or a wind engineer, but there has to be some reason why tornadoes have far more extreme instances of damage when it comes to winds and these reasons feel valid to me. The worst wind damage instances I can think of from a tropical cyclone were from Andrew near Miami and Beryl from Grenada (could've been another island actually), and those were at worst in the EF3 level range, which is very impressive when it comes to tropical cyclone winds.
 
slenker said:
I was under the impression that Andrew had damage in the EF3 range. In another thread, if anyone has any instances of Andrew’s damage pointing to EF4 or higher intensity, I’d love to be proven wrong here.
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Point taken - "tornado level damage" and EF4/EF5 are not the same. However - I will say that in Jamaica where this hit - the difference will be minimal, we're not talking about construction all that solid to begin with, especially on the west side of the island.
 
Blountwolf said:
Point taken - "tornado level damage" and EF4/EF5 are not the same. However - I will say that in Jamaica where this hit - the difference will be minimal, we're not talking about construction all that solid to begin with, especially on the west side of the island.
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Of course. Didn’t want to derail the thread. Treasure island has some nasty gusts, probably approaching 130 mph there already.
 
wx_guy said:
The last pass through the eye earlier dropped a dropsonde, and at the surface it measured 172 knots, or 200 mph. Wonder if this will be upgraded to 190+ mph at 11.
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That one was insane through the whole column. Gust of 252 at 906mb.


Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
927mb (Surface) 185° (from the S) 172 knots (198 mph)
924mb 190° (from the S) 171 knots (197 mph)
922mb 185° (from the S) 179 knots (206 mph)
921mb 185° (from the S) 185 knots (213 mph)
919mb 190° (from the S) 187 knots (215 mph)
918mb 190° (from the S) 195 knots (224 mph)
917mb 190° (from the S) 189 knots (217 mph)
916mb 195° (from the SSW) 203 knots (234 mph)
915mb 195° (from the SSW) 189 knots (217 mph)
914mb 195° (from the SSW) 189 knots (217 mph)
912mb 205° (from the SSW) 206 knots (237 mph)
911mb 205° (from the SSW) 215 knots (247 mph)
907mb 205° (from the SSW) 214 knots (246 mph)
906mb 205° (from the SSW) 219 knots (252 mph)
901mb 215° (from the SW) 207 knots (238 mph)
890mb 215° (from the SW) 201 knots (231 mph)
884mb 220° (from the SW) 184 knots (212 mph)
879mb 220° (from the SW) 176 knots (203 mph)
867mb 225° (from the SW) 182 knots (209 mph)
864mb 225° (from the SW) 190 knots (219 mph)
862mb 225° (from the SW) 192 knots (221 mph)
860mb 230° (from the SW) 211 knots (243 mph)
858mb 230° (from the SW) 198 knots (228 mph)
856mb 230° (from the SW) 196 knots (226 mph)
853mb 235° (from the SW) 185 knots (213 mph)
850mb 240° (from the WSW) 187 knots (215 mph)
846mb 245° (from the WSW) 197 knots (227 mph)
831mb 265° (from the W) 171 knots (197 mph)
830mb 255° (from the WSW) 189 knots (217 mph)
827mb 260° (from the W) 181 knots (208 mph)
826mb 265° (from the W) 166 knots (191 mph)
825mb 265° (from the W) 170 knots (196 mph)
820mb 270° (from the W) 141 knots (162 mph)
808mb 265° (from the W) 160 knots (184 mph)
801mb 260° (from the W) 144 knots (166 mph)
789mb 260° (from the W) 163 knots (188 mph)
773mb 265° (from the W) 115 knots (132 mph)
750mb 270° (from the W) 140 knots (161 mph)
741mb 255° (from the WSW) 110 knots (127 mph)
730mb 250° (from the WSW) 106 knots (122 mph)
713mb 255° (from the WSW) 133 knots (153 mph)
 
OK Melissa, now it's time for you to go straight north across the island, and fast. You hear me? No easterly component. (Fingers crossed for Kingston, though I know it will still be bad, just not AS bad.)
 
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