Hurricane Melissa

[TornadoFan]

 

[wx_guy]

Looks like the NHC is sticking with 892 mb and 185 mph for 11 AM. Not sure I agree with that, given that insane dropsonde.

 

[TornadoFan]

Is it me or is it now moving north straight towards Montego Bay?

 

[wx_guy]

Is it me or is it now moving north straight towards Montego Bay?

It definitely is wobbling north.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Please Josh Morgerman be in the right spot for the

I hope he makes it out alive so he can tell his story.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Tell that to Andrew.

You beat me to it

Andrew had extremely violent damage for a hurricane, but it was EF2 to EF3 level with the way tornadoes are rated today. I think a safe bet for the type of damage we can expect with these winds would be comparing current measured winds to the original Fujita scale which was arguably more accurate and way less political.




This is to say, the damage we're about to whitness on a huge swath of this little island is going to be shocking and historic. Especially in the mountains.

 

[tornado examiner]

The scar will be distinctly visible from space.

 

[tornado examiner]

I've seen nobody mention that Bermuda is in the direct path of Melissa way down the line and is forecast to be a category 2 as it pass’s them.

 

[tornado examiner]

Black River is being ripped apart by the northeast quadrant of the eye wall right now.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

The scar will be distinctly visible from space.

Maybe. There were some good points in the EF thread that a lot of the explosive damage and ground scouring of tornadoes is due to the instantaneous and rotational nature of the winds. The damage gradient leading into the eye may be too gradual to discern a visible and well defined scar from above. Maybe if it passes over super thick forest we'll see something more defined.

Only reason I'm saying this is because I don't want people setting their expectations too high, and then thinking the storm was somehow less catastrophic when it doesn't meet them. I think the loss of life here is going to be staggering. There have been several hurricanes with stronger winds out in the ocean over water, but this is one of the, if not the strongest landfalls of all time. And it's happening in an area that has never experienced this before. At least Andrew hit an area that is accustomed to strong hurricanes. There's no way Jamaica is as prepared for this as they need to be. The closest analog is probably Katrina in terms of the infrastructure failures we'll see.

 

[Smokedevil]

I don't see how even well built structures will survive gusts upwards of 220 mph.
The safest place is underground, but then the flooding, so........

 

[Mike S]

The eye is coming onshore now

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I don't see how even well built structures will survive gusts upwards of 220 mph.
The safest place is underground, but then the flooding, so........

Wood framed structures likely won't, but reinforced concrete structures should hold up well enough. The problem is very few locals are taking the threat seriously enough to seek out those shelters, and there won't be infrastructure in place to reach all the people in those structures once the hurricane passes. In Katrina it was floodwaters that stopped rescue crews. Here, it'll be washed out mountain roads and ports. It's going to be a logistical disaster just as much or more as a structural one.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Mike S]

 

[Mike S]

I'm surprised Josh still has any kind of connectivity

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

It doesn't look like anywhere super populated is taking a direct hit as it makes landfall, so that's a huge silver lining if true.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

It doesn't look like anywhere super populated is taking a direct hit as it makes landfall, so that's a huge silver lining if true.

But also it impacting so far west on the island that I think the Cuba impact is going to be more significant.

 

[wx_guy]

I would say something, but I have no words...

 

[warneagle]

But also it impacting so far west on the island that I think the Cuba impact is going to be more significant.

And that more westerly track would send the right-front quadrant right over Santiago de Cuba, which is the second-largest city in Cuba.