Hurricane Melissa

[TornadoFan]

 

[tornado examiner]

Yoo I was right about pressure.

 

[Atlantic]

About a 2 mb/hr deepening trend per extrap from recon it seems. If that continues without an EWRC, I expect the storm to go sub-900 mb in as little as 4-5 hours from now.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

However in the 2010s 55 mph, 95 mph and 135 mph were used.

This is also why Cat 4 minimum wind speed was reduced to 130 mph around the same time.

 

[tornado examiner]

About a 2 mb/hr deepening trend per extrap from recon it seems. If that continues without an EWRC, I expect the storm to go sub-900 mb in as little as 4-5 hours from now.

Last time I checked radar (which I can’t do anymore because the site is weird) it still didn't have any signs of an EWRC in the immediate future. I do fully suspect there could be one by evening today though.

 

[tornado examiner]

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

EWRC is also pretty easy to see in recon data by a double wind maxima as see in image below. Right now Melissa is only showing a single maxima (second image)

 

[tornado examiner]

A 175mph upgrade in the next advisory would be likely.

 

[tornado examiner]

Down to 907mb potentially.

 

[Blountwolf]

Last time I checked radar (which I can’t do anymore because the site is weird) it still didn't have any signs of an EWRC in the immediate future. I do fully suspect there could be one by evening today though.

Slightly off topic, but you may appreciate this paper on EWRCs in Irma. Melissa is going to be studied for sure for a lot of the same reasons - that MERC was pretty unique. My theory is that moisture levels differences at height are a big contributing factor. Very rarely are all levels of a system as... moisturized as Melissa.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/148/3/mwr-d-19-0185.1.xml

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[slenker]

-ridiculous

I’m speechless. 240 mph in a TC is insane at any altitude. To beat a record by a storm like Megi, a super typhoon monster through and through, is just crazy for an Atlantic C5.

 

[tornado examiner]

Another recon pass shortly to confirm if intensification has leveled off or if it's still dropping.

 

[N0mz]

Is the next recon actually in 6 hours…

 

[Kds86z]

 

[tornado examiner]

Is the next recon actually in 6 hours…

Ohhh nooo…

 

[tornado examiner]

-6.02 eye temp.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I swear it's so cliche that during times where we really need data, recon schedule just happens to tap off LOL. At least, we are getting data, incredible work these people do for us

 

[tornado examiner]

I swear it's so cliche that during times where we really need data, recon schedule just happens to tap off LOL. At least, we are getting data, incredible work these people do for us

Well at least it’ll likely be confirmed as a 175mph cane. Which is better than 160.