So does it seem like Melissa has intensified much since the last recon plane?
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Hurricane Melissa
- Thread starter Jacob Aden
- Start date
tornado examiner
Member
I don’t see why it wouldn't keep intensifying,
Well then 175+ mph and sub-900 mb+ here we come
akt1985
Member
I think the National Hurricane Center website crashed.
tornado examiner
Member
What a terribly perfect presentation.
tornado examiner
Member
Speaking of which has anybody been archiving the insane radar data from Melissa? Hopefully someone has.
warneagle
Member
works fine for me, so either it wasn't down or it's back up
tornado examiner
Member
Casually setting records now too.
tornado examiner
Member
First daytime eye pass incoming.
Don’t be surprised to see sub 910MB
Don’t be surprised to see sub 910MB
I wouldn’t be. I’m guessing it’s on a 2-4 mb deepening trend per hour right now.
tornado examiner
Member
My guess is gonna be 909mb with evidence to bump winds up to 170mph
tornado examiner
Member
I just read something that said daytime heating will promote an EWRC…
Hmmm…
Hmmm…
The NHC doesn’t use 170 mph, they would go 175 mph but I get your point.
Yea, I agree on 909 mb if not a mb or two lower.
tornado examiner
Member
That makes, no sense. Why is 170mph not used?
Because the closest 5 mph increment between 155 and 150 knots is 175 mph for both, it’s simply a result of the way they round the numbers.
EDIT: 145 knots correlates to 165 mph, 150 knots correlates to 175 mph, and 155 knots correlates to 180 mph. Got the info slightly wrong, but the math don’t lie
For those asking about whether Melissa may continue to strengthen you can look at the Hurricane based models on Tropical Tidbits for trends. I see two things:
1) most initiated this morning with pressures 5-10 mb higher than what is currently being found by recon
2) most are still showing strengthening in the next 24 hours, a couple to some absolute upper echelon results
Take from it what you will but the opportunity for further strengthening (barring ERC’s), is very high.
Really unique storm for its location but still not quite what I would say Dorian or Irma level just yet…very close now and may be there by tonight though.
Wish I could post more but it’s busy season at my job, will try to pop in with thoughts where I can (from a historical tropical perspective as Florida boy that tracked my first Hurricane in the 70’s!).
1) most initiated this morning with pressures 5-10 mb higher than what is currently being found by recon
2) most are still showing strengthening in the next 24 hours, a couple to some absolute upper echelon results
Take from it what you will but the opportunity for further strengthening (barring ERC’s), is very high.
Really unique storm for its location but still not quite what I would say Dorian or Irma level just yet…very close now and may be there by tonight though.
Wish I could post more but it’s busy season at my job, will try to pop in with thoughts where I can (from a historical tropical perspective as Florida boy that tracked my first Hurricane in the 70’s!).
Because measurements from KTS to MPH sometimes doesn’t add up correctly
So 55 mph, 95 mph, 135 mph, 170 mph, and 210 mph are not used.
However in the 2010s 55 mph, 95 mph and 135 mph were used.