Hurricane Melissa

[tornado examiner]

In less than 15 minutes we’ll know if it's a category 5 or not, my bet is that is it. Past 165mph even,

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

This is the most symmetrical storm I've ever seen, that is absolutely as perfect as you'll get. And this thing still has many hours over water to go SKY HIGH in intensity.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Based off of nothing but my limited intuition, I'd put money on it being atleast over 140 kts. Maybe even 150 kts.

 

[Clancy]

This is the most symmetrical storm I've ever seen, that is absolutely as perfect as you'll get. And this thing still has many hours over water to go SKY HIGH in intensity.

Very unsettling that we still have 36-48 hours before landfall.

 

[N0mz]

Spamming the refresh button on recon lmao

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Very unsettling that we still have 36-48 hours before landfall.

Indeed. I'm afraid i can see this thing reaching its ceiling with the MERC done, that is just extra boost. It's like what a nudger does to a supercell, it genuinely boosts it

 

[N0mz]

932.4

 

[tornado examiner]

932.4

Oof. And that's just first pass. What will the winds be?

 

[TornadoFan]

932.4

Jesus....

 

[N0mz]

Oof. And that's just first pass. What will the winds be?

Yeah I'm thinking they whiffed the eye just a little

 

[tornado examiner]

It's also moving just well enough for upwelling to not be an issue.

 

[TornadoFan]

I saw someone say the eye looks a bit ragged, but I'm not seeing any signs of that.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Oof. And that's just first pass. What will the winds be?

Thinking they missed the eye by a small bit, but even then, 932 and they didn't capture the eye? Yeah, this isn't ideal. Second pass, probably will get a better look

 

[tornado examiner]

I saw someone say the eye looks a bit ragged, but I'm not seeing any signs of that.

It's not laminar smooth but those are just mesovorticies.

 

[N0mz]

Thinking they missed the eye by a small bit, but even then, 932 and they didn't capture the eye? Yeah, this isn't ideal. Second pass, probably will get a better look

Even just a couple hours ago they had a few reading where winds where near zero.

 

[Clancy]

Will remain important to see how far west she goes before making that anticipated northward turn. Modelling increasingly favors a landfall somewhere near or west of Mandeville. While the storm is big and the whole island will be feeling the impacts, whether the eye strikes west of Mandeville or closer to Kingston could have significant influence on just how many people see those high-end winds and surge. Jamaica's population is heavily-concentrated in St. Andrew and St. Catherine's Parishes in Kingston and surrounding areas. Ultimately what I'm talking about is just differing magnitudes of nevertheless disastrous scenarios - I fear this will be a very bad situation regardless of where it ends up. The rural areas will likely suffer the most, especially with many smaller settlements having few roads to and from them. And, if wind fields expand significantly, the point of landfall wouldn't matter much.

 

[tornado examiner]

What does this new isolated VHT mean? Even more strengthening or something else?

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[tornado examiner]

You know what, I think it's about to take off again.

 

[N0mz]

Turned north for a NE-SW pass