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I don’t see this making it to category 5 anymore. It never bombed out fully (is weaker than satellite suggested) and now it's on the cusps of any EWRC and is fighting sheer and dry air still.
Nah I'm still confident in a cat 5 at some point. There's a little less than 48 hours to landfall, and I 100% at least one eye contraction that puts it over the top.
Melissa continues to demonstrate upper-echelon characteristics. Mesovortices remain visible in the well-defined eye. What number gets slapped on this storm is irrelevant to Jamaica, which is about to bear the brunt of a historic hurricane. Any chasers, photographers or adrenaline junkies would be best served to stay far away from this one. Any areas that aren't battered by wind and surge will be drenched in rain, and most of the elevated areas of Jamaica are highly-vulnerable to landslides. This is an extremely dangerous situation in the making.
I woke up and saw minimal change but Perhaps it's unwise to underestimate it. No secondary eye wall evident in recon data and it's strengthening smoothly again.
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