tornado examiner
Member
Wow a possible southeast reformation of its center may be occurring.
This may give it more time to intensify.
This may give it more time to intensify.
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Tropical Storm Melissa
- Thread starter Jacob Aden
- Start date
N0mz
Member
Not really
joshoctober16
Member
what the heck is this??? that's one of the most messed up hurricane paths ive ever seen , it keeps hitting the island over and over.
akt1985
Member
It’s possible Melissa could be worse than Dorian when that hurricane stalled over the Bahamas.
Lake Martin EF4
Member
Officially off the C5 train for this one. It'll be close, but I don't think it'll make it to 160, not with Jamaica gumming up the works. On the negative side, I think a direct hit or sideswipe is likely, and thus Melissa may end up being their worst storm on record. Current Melissa retirement chance: around 80%.
Of course, things could change by Sunday.
Of course, things could change by Sunday.
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tornado examiner
Member
NHC now calling for a 150mph cat 4 landfall on Jamaica directly
N0mz
Member
Just brutal. Stall out and dump multiple feet of rain before landfalling as a high end hurricane as well.
TornadoFan
Member
Melissa is now up to 60 MPH sustained winds.
It’s trying to take off quite literally.
- Thread starter
- #70
Jacob Aden
Member
Pink Comma is not something you want to see in the Caribbean
TornadoFan
Member
Yeah, she's taking off now.
tornado examiner
Member
Looks like the type of initial look a that a storm will have before it drills into the sea with a pinhole eye.
tornado examiner
Member
The core looks to have taken a massive jog north as it gets its act together.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Evident from satellite, Melissa is beginning to arise in intensity and i do think a low end C5 peak can't be ruled out still. The environment is absolutely there for this thing. The flooding situation in Jamaica will likely be catastrophic. Horrible scenario.
tornado examiner
Member
I don’t know why some are writing cat 5 off.
Its still got near record ocean heat content to work with and the shear is beginning to lessen just as forcast.
A tiny core will avoid land for a long time and allow for explosive intensification.
Its still got near record ocean heat content to work with and the shear is beginning to lessen just as forcast.
A tiny core will avoid land for a long time and allow for explosive intensification.
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WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yeah, i see the most plausible is 160-165 mph here. It doesn't matter if this thing hits sub-900 or it it shifts into the Western Caribbean and goes on to be record breaking, we are still looking at a very dangerous and life threatening situation for Jamaica. Apparently, the government is downplaying it saying it will shift out to sea....this is the worst thing a government can do when a very dangerous hurricane is heading for your country.
tornado examiner
Member
Peak forecast shifted east towards a more centralized landfall at 155MPH a five mph increase
akt1985
Member
Latest NHC track has Melissa going through the middle of Jamaica from the south.
tornado examiner
Member
Melissa has two shrimp like tails to the south of it. Not good.
tornado examiner
Member
I wouldn't be surprised if early model runs turned out to verify and this thing skyrockets past 175mph.