tornado examiner
Member
Does the environment even allow for that? It’d have to be the most stable pinhole eye ever to make it that high.
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Tropical Storm Melissa
- Thread starter Jacob Aden
- Start date
tornado examiner
Member
I keep wondering what the theoretical limit for tropical cyclone intensity is.
The closest the Atlantic has gotten to Patricia was with Hurricane Wilma in 2005.
Wilma’s peak was 160 kts (185 mph) and a Atlantic record low TC pressure of 882 mb
Patricia in comparison peaked at 185 kts (215 mph) with the second lowest pressure ever observed in a TC anywhere in the world at 872 mb.
tornado examiner
Member
Can Melissa actually pass those? It all depends on the path it takes and it's initial core structure.
tornado examiner
Member
It was already a given but Melissa is now forcast to become a CAT 4 at least.
If it passed 215/872 it would be a world record
Tip holds the pressure record at 870 mb currently and it has held it since 1979.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Melissa's potential to be a high end system is certainly there, but right now, my confidence isn't too high just yet. Most models still hone in on that C4 range for the minute so that's how I feel about this.
I'd like to recommend this website for tropical tracking, PolarWX. It just got a MAJOR update in its UI and is very flexible + top notch for model checking on these systems!
I'd like to recommend this website for tropical tracking, PolarWX. It just got a MAJOR update in its UI and is very flexible + top notch for model checking on these systems!
While Tip's pressure of 870mbar remains the record, I believe it has since been beaten by at least some Western Pac storms such Haiyan, Goni, Megi just to name a few. And Patricia might have beaten it as well. It's unfortunate that we have no recon in the Western Pacific. Satellite data (while excellent) can only do so much. Having that recon data input to the forecast models would be a game changer. Heck, use unmanned drones for Western Pacific typhoons if you can't fly an actual manned crew into one.
tornado examiner
Member
If it goes where it's forcast to, it would make less sense if it didn't become a category 5.
KakashiHatake2000
Member
i would probably take this with a grain of salt but wow
Kds86z
Member
Sky_I565
Member
HAFS-A has her as a strong Cat 5 Monday morning near 903 MB south of the DR.
Lake Martin EF4
Member
Haiyan didn't. The background pressures were simply too high. Likely a pressure around 880, give or take a few mbar (I have it at 878), but with winds of at least 215 mph.
I'd wager good money the JTWC estimate for Goni (around 884) is close to the real deal.
Megi I'm unsure of but haven't seen an argument for an 860s peak.
Now Patricia I agree did break into the 860s, as did Tip itself and Cyclone Olaf 2005 (deep cut!); I have all three at 868. Most likely to join them is Mike 1990 - that storm was INTENSE. Dale 1996, Dianmu 2004 and Nuri 2014 are also outsider candidates.
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tornado examiner
Member
We shall see if Melissa will join those titans.
Lake Martin EF4
Member
Don't bet on it. Anything can go wrong for her at this stage. Remember Delta?
Remember how active the Caribbean was in 2020 too with a lot of storms forming in.... so there was a reason Delta didn't achieve max intensity then
This year: Melissa is the only one to form and a lot of heat content at its disposal.
This year: Melissa is the only one to form and a lot of heat content at its disposal.
N0mz
Member
Remember 91L lol
Sky_I565
Member
Exactly. The high degreee of latent heat in the Caribbean is about as explsoive as I've seen over at least the last decade. There's been "no" activity to disrupt the fuel source if you will.
TornadoFan
Member