Hurricane Melissa

[Clancy]

Moving NNE to NE, wobbling a lot in between. Landfall likely in the Black River vicinity.

 

[Brice W]

You know, hurricanes are like women, the prettier they are, the more evil they are.

Absolutely unreal presentation from Melissa right now. Perfectly symmetric CDO with an insanely well-defined eye, easily one of the cleanest IR signatures of the season. Still holding its core despite increasing shear, but you can see some early signs of asymmetry creeping in on the west side.

 

[tornado examiner]

It's not unlikely that Melissa is still slowly intensifying.

 

[tornado examiner]

Eye is becoming unstable. We don't have radar but this could finally be the EWRC. But I don't expect it to impact the intensity too much.

 

[tornado examiner]

Also it just set a new eye temp record again. -3.61 C

 

[tornado examiner]

Also it just set a new eye temp record again. -3.61 C

This won't be broken again for a very long time.

 

[joshoctober16]

Also it just set a new eye temp record again. -3.61 C

correct

 

[tornado examiner]

The thing still has no immediate signs of an EWRC. But we don't have radar right now to confirm that.

 

[tornado examiner]

correct

-3.14 c now. Bruuuh.

 

[tornado examiner]

Intensity maintained in the latest advisory.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Melissa is about to break a record that's stood for over 100 years. Latest landfall as a category 5. If it weakens to cat 4 before landfall iota holds the record but. Melissa isn’t weakening yet.

Correction: Iota does not, and never did hold the "latest C5 landfall" record. Even operationally, it was a C4 at landfall. The record you're thinking of is "latest forming C5", which Melissa will not break and which Iota lost after its TCR downgraded it to C4.

 

[tornado examiner]

Correction: Iota does not, and never did hold the "latest C5 landfall" record. Even operationally, it was a C4 at landfall. The record you're thinking of is "latest forming C5", which Melissa will not break and which Iota lost after its TCR downgraded it to C4.

No no.
I'm talking the record of Latest in the season landfall at a particular intensity in the Atlantic.

I'm referencing a record made by the 1924 Cuba hurricane. Which Melissa is soon to break.

I never meant to imply iota was a category 5.
Just that if Melissa weakened to category 4 before landfall that iota would remain the latest in the season category 4 landfall because iota made landfall as a cat 4 in November.
I hope that clears that up.

 

[tornado examiner]

No no.
I'm talking the record of Latest in the season landfall at a particular intensity in the Atlantic.

I'm referencing a record made by the 1924 Cuba hurricane. Which Melissa is soon to break.

I never meant to imply iota was a category 5.
Just that if Melissa weakened to category 4 before landfall that iota would remain the latest in the season category 4 landfall because iota made landfall as a cat 4 in November.
I hope that clears that up.

The Cuba Hurricane of 1924 made landfall as a category 5 on October 19.
Melissa of course is soon to make landfall as a category 5 on October 28. 9 days later.
So a 101 year record will be broken.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

what is est time for landfall? unsure of what time i'd be

 

[tornado examiner]

The eye has shrunk and it's still not got an EWRC evident. CDO is a bit less impressive but still monstrous. This could be stronger than the current estimate. But recon still has a way to go before it even takes off.

 

[tornado examiner]

Hurricane Melissa. The queen of “merging” eye wall cycles.

 

[tornado examiner]

This thing is for sure stronger than 175mph.
185mph is my guess.

 

[tornado examiner]

Next recon flight is officially in progress.

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

This thing is for sure stronger than 175mph.
185mph is my guess.

There's always post season analysis.

 

[tornado examiner]

There's always post season analysis.

Yup.