Severe WX May 4th-May 6th, 2022 Threat

[Brice Wood]

if its consistently showing that....does it mean its more likely for that to be what happens?

Not necessarily, I think all the models were forecasting a big outbreak for 5/20/19 but nothing occurred.

 

[tornado examiner]

ah yes that....one of the most impressive busts in modern history...

 

[SouthFLwx]

if its consistently showing that....does it mean its more likely for that to be what happens?

Yes, but nothing is ever 100% certain in the world of weather. It’s entirely possible that this event busts like Monday due to some unexpected factor or it verifies/overperforms.

 

[Brice Wood]

3 tornado watches over a big area of Texas and Oklahoma including OKC

 

[Tennie]

Been looking at the satellite imagery of the MDT area, and one of my main concerns is that the cloud cover might put a damper on things. We'll just have to see what actually ends up happening...

 

[tornado examiner]

most of that appears to be quite thin doesnt it? and its starting to clear out a little bit...

 

[TornadoFan]

most of that appears to be quite thin doesnt it? and its starting to clear out a little bit...

Yeah, it does look quite thin. I've seen the sun shining in southern Oklahoma earlier.

 

[TornadoFan]

Right now in Ardmore, it's 81 degrees with a dewpoint of 70.

 

[xJownage]

I'm not too concerned about clearing. Remember that instability can advect in from a distance. Note that we already have approached 2000-3000 SBCAPE in the southern half of OK.

 

[TornadoFan]

Nice hodograph west of Snyder, OK.

 

[xJownage]

Nice hodograph west of Snyder, OK.
View attachment 13832

That's a forecast hodo though, and it's very contaminated. I'm very interested in the 21Z OUN sounding, if it manages to stay mostly rain free.

 

[xJownage]

Not sure if any of you care about Nadocast, but it's with me on really liking the warm front. I was worried about the lapse rates but it seems like it should be easily overcome. As long as the 21Z OUN comes in uncapped or close to uncapped, I think the WF is a go.

 

[Tennie]

The cell near Panhandle, TX, is hooking up. No real sign of a strong mesocyclone, though.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Tennie]

So far, things have been rather slow. Storms on the Texas Panhandle are crossing the WF and dying not long after they form; meanwhile, low-level lapse rates and forcing continue to be anemic over much of OK. There are, however, some severe storms forming around Midland and Lubbock, so we'll have to watch those in order to see what they end up doing (at least for now, anyway...).

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I get really lost when trying to understand this. Could you tell me what this means as far as CAPE, SRH, and SHEAR etc.Thank you!

 

[TornadoFan]

Looks like we have lift off near Ardmore.

 

[Tennie]

From the looks of it, the warm front has stalled around the Red River valley, and the cap is hanging in there. However, there's still a few hours left or so for things to come together (assuming they'll actually be able to do so at all...).

 

[TornadoFan]

Storm near Roaring Springs, TX is already up to 54,000 feet and heading towards a boundary south of Childress.

 

[Fred Gossage]

From the looks of it, the warm front has stalled around the Red River valley, and the cap is hanging in there. However, there's still a few hours left or so for things to come together (assuming they'll actually be able to do so at all...).

I'm not sure there is much of a cap. Mesoanalysis gridded soundings (those and the hodographs are an awesome new feature) and HRRR 00-01 hr soundings don't show much of a cap at all, and taking the 18z OUN sounding and modifying it for temperatures and dewpoints south of the warm front in southern Oklahoma removes any capping and any frontal inversions that had been in place. I think it's the meager low-level lapse rates you've touched on (which are getting closer to being adequate, they need to be in the 6's) combined with very weak large scale ascent so far... with very little in the way of mid-level height falls, and if anything, shortwave ridging and slight height rises before now. It's beginning to look like things are trying though, but we'll see. Like has been mentioned in the thread already, there are some mechanic similarities to 5/20/19, including these particular potential failure modes.