Severe WX May 4th-May 6th, 2022 Threat (1 Viewer)

xJownage

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I'm worried about the OKC area IVO the WF. I think it's going to be a bit cleaner than the CAMs are depicting.

Really, I'm throwing out the CAMs because pattern recognition says they're wrong. The pattern of a cutoff low like this would indicate the DL to be messy and the WF to be the show. I was throwing them out, but they're very consistent and the SPC seems to agree, so I'm questioning myself on that pattern.
 
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do you think theres a chance for a cell to become affected by what normally happens to cells in western and central oklahoma? the thing involving the higher elevations?
 

xJownage

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do you think theres a chance for a cell to become affected by what normally happens to cells in western and central oklahoma? the thing involving the higher elevations?
Not likely, since they're elevated. As the front surges north, if the front catches them, they could become surface based. That being said I expect further convective development on the WF prior to that happening.
 

OHWX97

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Here's a possible wrinkle into today's forecast:

I think Quincy is specifically referring to central Oklahoma and the poor lapse rates limiting the northward extent to today's threat. Intense tornadic supercells should still be expected for the moderate risk area and possibly eastward along the Red River.
 

Tennie

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Tornado Watch issued, with 80/60 tornado probs:

 

xJownage

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Here's a possible wrinkle into today's forecast:

This is something that caught my eye too and is why my confidence in the tornado threat towards OKC has waned over the past couple hours. I still have my eyes on the warm front, but as I said earlier when I said to keep both targets in play, I'd be playing the western target at this point.

That being said the lapse rates improve a bit further south. I'd expect a storm to develop south in the better lapse rates, get to the WF, and proceed to go crazy, which feels very plausible.
 
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Like Quincy V. said, this is almost like a 5/20/19 lite. Very different synoptic setup, but same general threat area, similar all-in (relatively speaking) output from the HRRR, and similar possible failure mode.
 

xJownage

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Not sure how accurate this is, but here we are. The WF is still dangerous.

In terms of 5/20/19, remember that the warm sector also remained capped for the entire day, and the cap only strengthened with time. There's almost no cap atm.
 

OHWX97

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day1probotlk_2000_torn.gif

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Wed May 04 2022

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. A few strong
tornadoes and giant hail is most probable across the southeast Texas
Panhandle into portions of southwest Oklahoma and north Texas. Wind
damage as well as tornadoes are also possible across the remainder
of central and eastern Oklahoma through tonight.

...Eastern TX Panhandle/South Plains into much of OK...
The Moderate Risk has been expanded eastward across a large portion
of OK, as the air mass continues to destabilize and remain free of
storms. Visible imagery continues to show pockets of heating, and
increasing CU fields near the Red River. Surface observations show
an unbroken plume of 68-70 F dewpoints now into southern OK, with
GPS water vapor sensors indicating a deepening moist boundary layer
with values increasing to over 1.50" over northwest TX.

Midday soundings reveal a capping inversion below 700 mb which is
helping to maintain the pristine air mass and guard against early
contamination. This inversion may also help to subdue the number of
storms later today across OK and northern TX. Any supercell over the
warm sector will have the potential to produce a strong tornado,
aided by midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km and dewpoints of 68 F or
greater. Later this evening, storms moving out of the Panhandle may
eventually merge into a severe MCS with significant wind damage
potential. In addition, further supercell develop may occur tonight
along the baroclinic zone extending eastward across OK.

Farther west into the TX Panhandle and South Plains, rapid
destabilization continues, beneath cooler air aloft. Supercells
producing very large damaging hail are likely, with a threat of
strong tornadoes as supercells interact with increasing low-level
shear to the east.

See mesoscale discussions 640, 642, 643 for more information.

..Jewell.. 05/04/2022
 

Tennie

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I agree, but I think they're forecasting the ceiling. The ceiling for both targets is a pretty significant outbreak.

What would be really nice is some kind of "risk/confidence"-type forecast (e.g. high risk/low confidence for a situation with a high ceiling and a low floor). IIRC, the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang has been doing those kinds of forecasts for winter weather for quite some time now.
 

Taylor Campbell

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HRRR consistently showing long tracking discrete warm sector supercells.
 

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